Match Info
Ekstraklasa - Round 25Date: 13 March 2026, FridayLocation: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów (Radom)Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Czech-republic | Sporty TV |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 7 |
 Usa | beIN Connect |
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Radomiak Radom |
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Legia Warsaw |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Radomiak Radom
35.4% | Draw
28.5% | Legia Warsaw
36.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Radomiak Radom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Radomiak Radom that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Legia Warsaw could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Users Predictions:
28 users predict this event. Radomiak will win (votes: 11 - 39.3%). Legia will win (votes: 13 - 46.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 27.9% – 64.9%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DNB - Radomiak (2.06) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Radomiak (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Radomiak (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Radomiak (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Legia (votes: 7 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
1.  Majchrowicz F. (G)
24.  Zie Ouattara
14.  Kingue S.
26.  Dieguez A.
3.  Wilson-Esbrand J.
2.  Camara I.
13. Grzesik J.
6.  Baro R.
27. Wolski R. (C)
82.  Luquinhas
25. Maurides
| 89.  Hindrich O. (G)
91. Piatkowski K.
8. Augustyniak R. (C)
12.  Pankov R.
11. Chodyna K.
53. Urbanski W.
22.  Elitim J.
23. Kun P.
21.  Bichakhchyan V.
9. Adamski R.
29.  Rajovic M.
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| Substitutes |
21.  Balde E.
5.  Blasco J.
16. Cichocki M.
77.  Donis C.
75. Jerke M. (G)
28. Kaput M.
44. Koptas W. (G)
9. Leandro
7.  Lopes V.
19. Soumah S.
15.  Tapsoba A.
17. Zabicki A.
| 55. Jedrzejczyk A.
99.  Kovacik S.
77.  Krasniqi E.
56. Leszczynski J.
18. Nsame J.
13. Reca A.
44. Szymanski D.
1. Tobiasz K. (G)
82. Urbanski K.
7. Wszolek P.
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| Coaches |
Ramirez F.
| Papszun M.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 2', 1 - 0, Maurides ⚽, Wolski R. (A),
- 7', 1 - 1, Pankov R. ⚽, Elitim J. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Luquinhas ↓, Balde E. ↑,
- 56', Baro R. 🟨,
- 59', Kingue S. 🟨,
- 65', Camara I. ↓, Donis C. ↑,
- 65', Baro R. ↓, Kaput M. ↑,
- 65', Rajovic M. ↓, Nsame J. ↑,
- 74', Urbanski W. ↓, Szymanski D. ↑,
- 74', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Krasniqi E. ↑,
- 76', Maurides ↓, Tapsoba A. ↑,
- 80', Kun P. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
- 80', Chodyna K. ↓, Wszolek P. ↑,
- 80', Wilson-Esbrand J. ↓, Lopes V. ↑,
- 88', Elitim J. 🟨,
Preview
A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 2.Recent performances by Radomiak have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).Legia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Radomiak may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.There will not play in Radomiak: Alves R.
(Inactive)There will not play in Legia: Vinagre R.
(Injury)
Wszolek P.
(Injury)There are questionable in Legia: Arreiol H.
(Inactive)
Zewlakow J.
(Inactive)In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 1.4:1.6).Including home matches between the teams, Radomiak won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).
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Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Legia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11:3 | 8 | 11 |
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| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:12 | -8 | 4 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Radomiak Radom - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 30.68%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.
Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 40.04%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Polish Ekstraklasa | | | 14.09.25 | Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom | 4:1 | | 22.02.25 | Radomiak Radom - Legia Warsaw | 3:1 | | 18.08.24 | Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom | 4:1 | | 05.05.24 | Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom | 0:3 | | 05.11.23 | Radomiak Radom - Legia Warsaw | 0:1 | | 17.03.23 | Radomiak Radom - Legia Warsaw | 0:2 | | 02.09.22 | Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom | 1:0 |
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✺ - difficult match;
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