Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 3

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów (Radom)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 4, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3


	Radomiak Radom		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.25	2.25	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.1
	3	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.24	3.35	2.33
	3.16	3.21	2.30	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.1
	3.23	3.35	2.28	Watch
	3.85	3.5	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (3.19)	3.3 ↑ (3.18)	2.19 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Radomiak Radom
28.4%

Draw
28.6%

Raków Częstochowa
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

29.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

28.1%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 9 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 71.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Raków (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Majchrowicz F. (C) 13. Grzesik J. 5. Blasco J. 14. Kingue S. 20. Joao Pedro 28. Kaput M. 6. Jordao B. 11. Capita 10. Alves R. 7. Lopes V. 25. Maurides	1. Trelowski K. (C) 66. Konstantopoulos A. 24. Arsenic Z. 2. Mosor A. 7. Tudor F. 88. Barath P. 23. Struski K. 26. Otieno E. 28. Diaz J. 8. Pienko T. 18. Brunes J.
Substitutes
2. Camara I. 16. Cichocki M. 29. Depu 77. Donis C. 8. Golubickas P. 99. Guilherme 75. Jerke M. (G) 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 15. Tapsoba A. 27. Wolski R. 24. Zie Ouattara	11. Adriano 19. Ameyaw M. 5. Bulat M. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 9. Makuch P. 14. Plavsic S. 25. Racovitan B. 6. Repka O. 17. Rocha L. 97. Seck I. 48. Zych O. (G)
Coaches
Henriques J.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Jordao B. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Lopes V. ↓, Wolski R. ↑,
46', Pienko T. ↓, Adriano ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Capita ⚽, Majchrowicz F. (A),
56', Mosor A. 🟨,
61', Mosor A. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
61', Struski K. ↓, Repka O. ↑,
64', Arsenic Z. 🟨,
66', 2 - 0, Alves R. (Pen),
68', 2 - 1, Brunes J. ⚽, Diaby-Fadiga L. (A),
76', Arsenic Z. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
78', Alves R. ↓, Donis C. ↑,
78', Jordao B. ↓, Camara I. ↑,
79', Capita ↓, Tapsoba A. ↑,
82', Joao Pedro 🟨,
83', Barath P. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
84', Joao Pedro ↓, Zie Ouattara ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Maurides ⚽, Kaput M. (A),
90+4', Adriano 🟨,
90+5', Wolski R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 1.

Radomiak has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Raków is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Radomiak may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Radomiak has had a series of home games.

Raków will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:20. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Radomiak won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.5:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Stal Stalowa Wola	2:3 ✺
05.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Omonia	2:1 ✺
02.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWLWT
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Žilina - Raków Częstochowa	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Raków Częstochowa - Wisła Płock	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Raków Częstochowa - Žilina	3:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.07.25	GKS Katowice - Raków Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Raków Częstochowa - Anderlecht	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
12.04.25	Raków Częstochowa - Radomiak Radom	2:1
05.10.24	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	0:2
05.04.24	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	2:1
01.10.23	Raków Częstochowa - Radomiak Radom	3:0
10.04.23	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
17.09.22	Raków Częstochowa - Radomiak Radom	3:0
12.02.22	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	0:1

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