Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: ArcelorMittal Park (Sosnowiec)

Referee: Berka O. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
China	ZhiBo8
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 18
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+
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Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
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Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 18
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Raków Częstochowa		Zrinjski Mostar

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.2	6.5
	1.46	4.45	6.4
	1.46	4.13	6.7
	1.5	4.32	6.49	Watch
	1.5	3.9	6.5
	1.54	4.26	6.81
	1.52	4	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.57)	4.18 ↑ (4.07)	6.53 ↑ (5.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
63%

Draw
22.5%

Zrinjski Mostar
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

22.9%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

22.4%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Zrinjski Mostar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zrinjski Mostar than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	10%	6.7%

Raków Częstochowa - Zrinjski Mostar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Zrinjski (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Raków (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Zrinjski (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Raków Częstochowa will win (25 of 30 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.99% – 96.67%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Zrinjski (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Zych O. (G) 7. Tudor F. (C) 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 19. Ameyaw M. 23. Struski K. 6. Repka O. 11. Adriano 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 18. Brunes J. 8. Pienko T.	18. Karacic G. (G) 50. Memija K. 27. Jakovljevic S. 55. Dujmovic D. 12. Mamic P. 21. Savic I. 5. Masic I. 9. Mikic L. 30. Djurasek N. 22. Pranjic J. 99. Bilbija N. (C)
Substitutes
88. Barath P. 5. Bulat M. 66. Konstantopoulos A. 39. Madrzyk J. (G) 9. Makuch P. 44. Mircetic B. 99. Rondic I. 97. Seck I. 20. Silva J. C. 1. Trelowski K. (G)	77. Abramovic K. 7. Burey T. 42. Cavar M. 3. Filipovic B. 20. Ivancic A. 6. Karacic D. 90. Majic T. 32. Sajko T. (G) 14. Sakota M. 23. Surdanovic S. 17. Susak A. 24. Velkovski D.
Coaches
Papszun M.	Stimac I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', Memija K. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 0, Brunes J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Djurasek N. 🟨,
57', Mikic L. ↓, Sakota M. ↑,
57', Djurasek N. ↓, Ivancic A. ↑,
63', Pranjic J. ↓, Burey T. ↑,
76', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
76', Repka O. ↓, Barath P. ↑,
83', Brunes J. ↓, Rondic I. ↑,
83', Adriano ↓, Silva J. C. ↑,
84', Sakota M. 🟨,
87', Pienko T. ↓, Mircetic B. ↑,
90+1', Memija K. ↓, Abramovic K. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - ArcelorMittal Park.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Raków is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Raków: Arsenic Z. (Leg Injury) Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Raków: Mosor A. (Inactive)

We predict that Raków will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 59.31%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.12.25	Raków Częstochowa - GKS Katowice	1:0 ✺
Polish Cup
03.12.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Raków Częstochowa - Rapid Wien	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.11.25	Raków Częstochowa - Piast Gliwice	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL
- Zrinjski Mostar
Bosnian Premier League
07.12.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Velež Mostar	1:1 ✺
03.12.25	Rudar Prijedor - Zrinjski Mostar	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Posušje	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Zrinjski Mostar - Häcken	2:1 ✺
Bosnian Premier League
21.11.25	Radnik Bijeljina - Zrinjski Mostar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWLWW

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