Match Info

AFC Champions League 2 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Dragon Solar Park (Ratchaburi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Ariana
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	MNC Soccer Channel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena 2, Astro Go
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Ukraine	Sport 1
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball, Sport 1 Baltic


	Ratchaburi		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	4.95	4.05	1.55
	5.4	4.23	1.57
	5.26	4.37	1.54	Watch
	4.8	3.75	1.53
	4.84	4.25	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.05 ↑ (4.4)	4.13 ↑ (3.75)	1.57 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ratchaburi
18.4%

Draw
22.4%

Gamba Osaka
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

24.4%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

23.7%

56.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ratchaburi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ratchaburi than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Ratchaburi - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Ratchaburi (1.87) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gamba Osaka will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ratchaburi (votes: 2 - 40%). Gamba Osaka (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Pathomakkakul K. (G) 27. Curran J. 3. Sidcley 2. Mutombo G. 79. Gleyson 6. Tana 7. Deni Junior 28. Limwannasthian T. 8. Suengchitthawon T. (C) 11. Negueba 55. Ting D.	1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 3. Handa R. 5. Miura G. 20. Nakatani S. (C) 21. Hatsuse R. 13. Abe S. 16. Suzuki T. 17. Yamashita R. 23. Hummet D. 8. Meshino R. 11. Jebali I.
Substitutes
23. Deeromram K. 16. Jakkuprasat S. 10. Kaewprom J. 4. Khemdee J. 14. Mesa R. 19. Peenagatapho S. 88. Poomkaew C. 15. Promrak A. 89. Rakotoharimalala N. 37. Srisuwan K. 24. Wonggorn J. 97. Wongmeema U. (G)	18. Araki R. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 15. Kishimoto T. 10. Kurata S. 42. Minamino H. 27. Mito R. 51. Mitsuta M. 38. Nawata G. 44. Okunuki K. 40. Toyama S. 97. Welton 31. Zhang A. (G)
Coaches
Srimaka W.	Wissing J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Miura G. ⚽, Nakatani S. (A),
33', Sidcley ↓, Promrak A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Limwannasthian T. ↓, Mesa R. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Gleyson ⚽,
64', Handa R. 🟨,
65', Deni Junior (Penalty Awarded),
68', Meshino R. ↓, Welton ↑,
68', Suzuki T. ↓, Mito R. ↑,
75', Deni Junior ↓, Rakotoharimalala N. ↑,
77', Hatsuse R. 🟨,
79', Hummet D. ↓, Nawata G. ↑,
79', Yamashita R. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
79', Hatsuse R. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
88', Suengchitthawon T. ↓, Srisuwan K. ↑,
90+3', Mesa R. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
93', Abe S. 🟨,
99', 1 - 2, Welton ⚽, Nawata G. (A),
105+3', Srisuwan K. ↓, Wonggorn J. ↑,
105+3', Promrak A. ↓, Khemdee J. ↑,
112', Welton ↓, Kurata S. ↑,
116', Jebali I. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

In recent matches, Ratchaburi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Gamba Osaka is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ratchaburi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Gamba Osaka has had a series of home games.

In this match, Gamba Osaka is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ratchaburi won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ratchaburi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ratchaburi FC
AFC Champions League 2
04.03.26	Gamba Osaka - Ratchaburi	1:1 ✺
Thai League 1
28.02.26	Ratchaburi - Uthai Thani	3:1 ✺
Thai FA Cup
25.02.26	Ayutthaya United - Ratchaburi	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
18.02.26	Persib Bandung - Ratchaburi	1:0 ✺
Thai League 1
14.02.26	Ratchaburi - Prachuap	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLLT
- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
08.03.26	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
04.03.26	Gamba Osaka - Ratchaburi	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
28.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:2 penalties ✺
22.02.26	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
19.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Pohang Steelers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League 2
04.03.26	Gamba Osaka - Ratchaburi	1:1
11.12.25	Gamba Osaka - Ratchaburi	2:0
02.10.25	Ratchaburi - Gamba Osaka	0:2

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