Match Info

J1 League - Round 4

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Panasonic Stadium Suita (Suita)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Gamba Osaka		Shimizu S-Pulse

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.1	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.5
	2.18	3.3	3.1
	2.29	3.49	3.25
	2.19	3.51	3.22	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.1
	2.16	3.46	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.87)	3.43 ↓ (3.78)	3.23 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gamba Osaka
43.6%

Draw
27.4%

Shimizu S-Pulse
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

25%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gamba Osaka's form might have worsened.

Shimizu S-Pulse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	40%	0%

Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S Pulse Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gamba Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 3. Handa R. 5. Miura G. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 21. Hatsuse R. 13. Abe S. 16. Suzuki T. 40. Toyama S. 38. Nawata G. 8. Meshino R. 23. Hummet D.	1. Oki Y. (G) 14. Park Seung-Wook 51. Sumiyoshi J. 15. Honda Y. 28. Yoshida Y. 81. Kozuka K. 10. Matheus Bueno 23. Chiba K. 49. Kitagawa K. (C) 38. Takahashi T. 7. Capixaba
Substitutes
18. Araki R. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 15. Kishimoto T. 10. Kurata S. 42. Minamino H. 27. Mito R. 6. Mitsuta M. 41. Nakamura J. 44. Okunuki K.	18. Gunji R. 5. Kitazume K. 21. Matsuzaki K. 97. Ohata R. 47. Shimamoto Y. 50. Stephens A. 16. Umeda T. (G) 6. Uno Z. 17. Yumiba M.
Coaches
Wissing J.	Yoshida T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Meshino R. ⚽,
41', 2 - 0, Hummet D. ⚽, Abe S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Toyama S. ↓, Kurata S. ↑,
46', Nawata G. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
59', Takahashi T. ↓, Matsuzaki K. ↑,
59', Chiba K. ↓, Uno Z. ↑,
60', Meshino R. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
74', Hummet D. ↓, Mitsuta M. ↑,
77', Kozuka K. ↓, Stephens A. ↑,
77', Park Seung-Wook ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Kitagawa K. ⚽, Capixaba (A),
86', 2 - 2, Capixaba ⚽, Uno Z. (A),
90+4', Capixaba ↓, Shimamoto Y. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Kitagawa K. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Minamino H. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Matheus Bueno (Penalty Awarded),
2, Kurata S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Uno Z. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Mitsuta M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Matsuzaki K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Okunuki K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Stephens A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Suzuki T. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 2.

Gamba Osaka is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Shimizu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gamba Osaka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Ichimori J. (Injury) Nakano S. (Injury) Uenaka A. (Injury) Usami T. (Muscle Injury) Welton (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Shimizu: Takahashi Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gamba Osaka: Abe S. (Injury) Sasaki S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Gamba Osaka: 0.71% Shimizu S-Pulse: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6:7	-1	5
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
22.02.26	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
19.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Pohang Steelers	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
15.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League 2
12.02.26	Pohang Steelers - Gamba Osaka	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
07.02.26	Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWLTW
- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
21.02.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Vissel Kobe	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Shonan Bellmare - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
15.06.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	0:0
08.03.25	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0
14.08.22	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2
10.04.22	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	1:1
13.08.21	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	0:1
18.04.21	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0
19.12.20	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2

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