Match Info

J1 League - Round 3

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Fagiano Okayama		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.35	Watch
	2.88	3.1	2.42	Watch
	3.08	3.4	2.4
	2.97	3.13	2.53	Watch
	2.9	3	2.4
	3.19	3.23	2.33	Watch
	3	3.25	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.05)	3.19 ↓ (3.33)	2.4 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
31.3%

Draw
29.5%

Gamba Osaka
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

28.4%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
52. Hamada T. (G) 6. Omori H. 48. Tatsuta Y. 2. Kudo K. 51. Shirai K. 41. Miyamoto E. 3. Fujii K. 88. Yamane T. 40. Kawano K. 8. Esaka A. 99. Lucao	1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 3. Handa R. 5. Miura G. 4. Nakatani S. 21. Hatsuse R. 16. Suzuki T. 27. Mito R. 17. Yamashita R. 11. Jebali I. 8. Meshino R. 23. Hummet D.
Substitutes
4. Abe K. 55. Fujii Y. 22. Ichimi K. 33. Kamiya Yuta 27. Kimura T. 28. Matsumoto M. 1. Moser L. (G) 43. Suzuki Y. 98. Werik Popo	18. Araki R. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 15. Kishimoto T. 10. Kurata S. 42. Minamino H. 38. Nawata G. 44. Okunuki K. 40. Toyama S. 36. Yamamoto T.
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Wissing J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Nakatani S. 🟨,
14', 1 - 0, Lucao (Penalty Awarded),
32', 1 - 1, Hummet D. ⚽, Mito R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jebali I. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
46', Hatsuse R. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
57', Yamane T. 🟨,
60', Mito R. ↓, Yamamoto T. ↑,
61', Meshino R. ↓, Nawata G. ↑,
61', Kawano K. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
61', Yamane T. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
73', Miyamoto E. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
73', Lucao ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Minamino H. ⚽,
81', Fujii K. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
83', Suzuki T. ↓, Ikegaya G. ↑,

Preview

Okayama may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Okayama: Ogura K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Ichimori J. (Injury) Nakano S. (Injury) Uenaka A. (Injury) Usami T. (Muscle Injury) Welton (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I. (Injury) Nishikawa J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Gamba Osaka: Abe S. (Injury) Sasaki S. (Injury) Yamashita R. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Okayama: 1.92% Gamba Osaka: 0.71%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6:7	-1	5
13	Okayama	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fagiano Okayama - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 31.01%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
07.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
06.12.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Fagiano Okayama - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWLT
- Gamba Osaka
AFC Champions League 2
19.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Pohang Steelers	2:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
15.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League 2
12.02.26	Pohang Steelers - Gamba Osaka	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
07.02.26	Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka	0:1 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League 2
11.12.25	Gamba Osaka - Ratchaburi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
10.08.25	Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	0:3
26.02.25	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	2:0
Japan J2 League
04.08.13	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	2:3

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