Match Info

CONCACAF Central American Cup - Round 5

Date: 28 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Francisco Morazán (San Pedro Sula)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Tubi TV
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Real España		Sporting San Miguelito

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.51	3.75	5.25
				Watch
	1.72	3.3	5.35
	1.92	3.07	4.38	Watch
	1.57	3.56	5.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.5)	3.42 ↓ (3.77)	5.13 ↓ (6.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real España
55%

Draw
27%

Sporting San Miguelito
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

24.2%

15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

24.7%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real España has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real España's form might have worsened.

Sporting San Miguelito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real España than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real España, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting San Miguelito than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Real España - Sporting San Miguelito Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting San Miguelito will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Garcia D. ⚽, Benavidez J. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Moya B. (Pen),
32', 3 - 0, Cruz N. ⚽, Gustavo Souza (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
80', 4 - 0, Gustavo Souza ⚽,

Preview

San Miguelito is Qualified for CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Real España may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real España is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real España
Honduras Liga Nacional
24.08.25	Real España - Juticalpa	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
20.08.25	Real España - Diriangén	1:0 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
16.08.25	Real España - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
13.08.25	Municipal - Real España	2:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
09.08.25	Choloma - Real España	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWTLW
- Sporting San Miguelito
CONCACAF Central American Cup
21.08.25	Sporting San Miguelito - Herediano	2:0 ✺
Liga Panamena de Futbol
16.08.25	Plaza Amador - Sporting San Miguelito	2:0 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
13.08.25	Sporting San Miguelito - Diriangén	2:1 ✺
Liga Panamena de Futbol
10.08.25	Árabe Unido - Sporting San Miguelito	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
07.08.25	Municipal - Sporting San Miguelito	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLWTT

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