Match Info

SPAIN: Copa del Rey - 1/64-finals

Date: 29 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Nuevo Estadio de La Victoria (Jaén)


	Real Jaén		Cádiz

	1	X	2
	6.5	3.6	1.6
	5.75	3.9	1.6
	5.5	3.75	1.57	Watch
	5.16	3.7	1.57
	5.81	3.7	1.55	Watch
	5.8	3.75	1.53	Watch
	5.87	3.88	1.6
	5.5	3.75	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.74 ↑ (5.28)	3.75 ↓ (3.77)	1.57 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Jaén
16.2%

Draw
24.8%

Cádiz
59%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

24.6%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.6%

27.6%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Jaén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Cádiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cádiz than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cádiz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Real Jaén - Cádiz Predictions

Users Predictions: Cádiz will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez J. (G) 2. Fernandez S. 25. Pedro 20. Cabello M. 30. Fernandez M. 7. Camara J. 16. Segura J. 10. Adri P. 11. Martos M. 8. Gomez A. T. 14. Fernandez C.	13. Caro J. (G) 2. Zaldua J. 3. Fali 24. Antonio Cristian 33. Cabrera J. 17. Escalante G. 6. San Emeterio F. 19. De la Rosa J. A. 7. Sobrino R. 11. Alejo I. 15. Mwepu F.
Substitutes
19. Alonso A. 5. Awusi W. 23. Burgos F. 4. Espin J. 18. Garcia M. 22. Lozano O. 17. Moyano J. 6. Muniz A. 13. Palop A. (G) 9. Rodriguez F. 3. Rodriguez S.	21. Alarcon T. 4. Alcaraz R. 1. Gil D. (G) 12. Kouame R. 14. Kovacevic B. 9. Marti R. 18. Matos Jose 22. Ontiveros J. 16. Ramos C. 34. Viciana M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Sobrino R. ⚽, Zaldua J. (A),
32', San Emeterio F. 🟨,
35', Cabrera J. 🟨,
43', Adri P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Escalante G. ↓, Alarcon T. ↑,
46', Adri P. ↓, Awusi W. ↑,
46', Martos M. ↓, Burgos F. ↑,
59', Burgos F. 🟥,
62', Sobrino R. ↓, Ontiveros J. ↑,
62', Mwepu F. ↓, Ramos C. ↑,
65', Camara J. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
68', 0 - 2, Pedro (Own goal),
69', 0 - 3, Ontiveros J. ⚽,
70', De la Rosa J. A. ↓, Marti R. ↑,
70', San Emeterio F. ↓, Kouame R. ↑,
73', Fernandez C. ↓, Moyano J. ↑,
73', Gomez A. T. ↓, Alonso A. ↑,

Preview

Jaén in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Cádiz is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cádiz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Cádiz is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jaén won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:6 (average 0.6:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Jaén won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Jaén
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
20.10.24	El Ejido - Real Jaén	1:2 ✺
13.10.24	Real Jaén - Huétor Vega	3:1 ✺
06.10.24	Arenas Armilla - Real Jaén	1:3 ✺
28.09.24	Real Jaén - CP Almería	6:1 ✺
22.09.24	Martos - Real Jaén	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW
- Cádiz CF
Spanish LaLiga2
26.10.24	Cádiz - Real Oviedo	2:0 ✺
23.10.24	Eibar - Cádiz	1:0 ✺
20.10.24	Cádiz - Racing Santander	0:1 ✺
12.10.24	Cádiz - Málaga	2:2 ✺
04.10.24	Huesca - Cádiz	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
15.05.16	Real Jaén - Cádiz	0:1
03.01.16	Cádiz - Real Jaén	2:0
11.02.15	Cádiz - Real Jaén	1:0
30.08.14	Real Jaén - Cádiz	1:1
05.05.13	Real Jaén - Cádiz	2:1

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