Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 6

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday


	Real Jaén		Melilla

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	4.05
	1.86	3.19	4.48
	1.85	3.28	4.27
	1.96	3.1	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.97)	3.19 ↑ (3)	4.15 ↑ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Jaén
49.1%

Draw
28.7%

Melilla
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

30.3%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

29.4%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Melilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Real Jaén - Melilla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Melilla (2.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Melilla (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Melilla (2.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Melilla (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Adri P. (Pen),
34', Quindimil A. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
82', 1 - 1, Chavarria M. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jaén won 2.

Jaén has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Melilla has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Jaén is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Jaén won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jaén won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
05.10.25	Estepona - Real Jaén	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Real Jaén - Xerez Deportivo	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Antoniano - Real Jaén	2:3 ✺
14.09.25	Real Jaén - CD Extremadura	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.08.25	Quintanar del Rey - Real Jaén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WWWLL
- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
05.10.25	Melilla - Xerez CD	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	La Unión - Melilla	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Melilla - Minera	2:2 ✺
14.09.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Melilla	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Minera - Melilla	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
12.03.17	Real Jaén - Melilla	0:0
23.10.16	Melilla - Real Jaén	2:1
24.04.16	Melilla - Real Jaén	1:0
06.12.15	Real Jaén - Melilla	5:0
15.03.15	Real Jaén - Melilla	3:2
26.10.14	Melilla - Real Jaén	1:1
28.04.13	Real Jaén - Melilla	1:2

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