Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, HRT 2, HRTi, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1, V Sport Premium
France	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 4
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, Prime Video Sportsbar IT
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Kazakhstan TV, Qazaqstan TV
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8, TVM Sport+
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Moldova	Jurnal TV
Mongolia	Premier Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, RTS 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 5, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Sport 24


	Real Madrid		Juventus

	1	X	2
	1.44	5	6
	1.42	5.15	7.1
	1.45	5.05	6.8
	1.54	3.82	6.52	Watch
	1.46	5.14	6.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.58)	4.83 ↑ (4.26)	6.58 ↑ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
65.6%

Draw
19.8%

Juventus
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

22.3%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

21.6%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Juventus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventus than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.4%	9%	6.6%

Real Madrid - Juventus Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1.25 - Real (1.91) (votes: 7 - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (101 of 120 users predict this - 84.17%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.64% – 90.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (57 of 60 users predict this - 95%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 68 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 64 - 94.1%). Juventus (votes: 3 - 4.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 1.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 8. Valverde F. (C) 3. Eder Militao 17. Asencio R. 18. Carreras A. 21. Diaz B. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 7. Vinicius Junior 5. Bellingham J. 10. Mbappe K.	16. Di Gregorio M. (G) 4. Gatti F. 24. Rugani D. 6. Kelly L. 15. Kalulu P. 19. Thuram K. 22. McKennie W. 27. Cambiaso A. 8. Koopmeiners T. 9. Vlahovic D. 10. Yildiz K. (C)
Substitutes
6. Camavinga E. 9. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 23. Mendy F. 45. Pitarch T. 11. Rodrygo	17. Adzic V. 7. Conceicao F. 30. David J. 43. Fuscaldo M. (G) 25. Joao Mario 18. Kostic F. 5. Locatelli M. 21. Miretti F. 20. Openda L. 1. Perin M. (G) 11. Zhegrova E.
Coaches
Alonso X.	Tudor I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 1 - 0, Bellingham J. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
61', Diaz B. 🟨,
62', Thuram K. ↓, Conceicao F. ↑,
74', Guler A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
74', Koopmeiners T. ↓, Locatelli M. ↑,
74', Vlahovic D. ↓, David J. ↑,
74', Yildiz K. ↓, Openda L. ↑,
84', Vinicius Junior ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
84', Diaz B. ↓, Mastantuono F. ↑,
88', Asencio R. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
88', Cambiaso A. ↓, Kostic F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 3.

Real is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Juventus has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Real has had a series of away games.

In this match, Real is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Foot Injury) Carvajal D. (Red Card) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Juventus: Bremer (Knee Injury) Cabal J. (Thigh Injury) Milik A. (Knee Injury) Pinsoglio C. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Alexander-Arnold T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Juventus: Miretti F. (Thigh Injury) Zhegrova E. (Groin Injury)

We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Real won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.25	Getafe - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Kairat - Real Madrid	0:5 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	5:2 ✺
23.09.25	Levante - Real Madrid	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWLW
- Juventus
Italian Serie A
19.10.25	Como - Juventus	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Juventus - Milan	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Villarreal - Juventus	2:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
27.09.25	Juventus - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Verona - Juventus	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

FIFA Club World Cup
01.07.25	Real Madrid - Juventus	1:0
Club Friendly
02.08.23	Juventus - Real Madrid	3:1
30.07.22	Real Madrid - Juventus	2:0
International Champions Cup
04.08.18	Real Madrid - Juventus	3:1
UEFA Champions League
11.04.18	Real Madrid - Juventus	1:3
03.04.18	Juventus - Real Madrid	0:3
03.06.17	Juventus - Real Madrid	1:4

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