Match Info

LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Diaz I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Startimes Am'mobi, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin, T Sports
Belarus	Belarus 5
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	TSN+
China	Migu
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	DAZN
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Disney+
Uruguay	DAZN, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	DAZN
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Real Madrid		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	1.33	6.00	7.50	Watch
	1.36	5.75	7.00
	1.30	5.80	8.50	Watch
	1.36	6.00	8.37
	1.36	6.3	7.2	Watch
	1.34	5.85	8.20
	1.33	6.05	8.04	Watch
	1.32	6.40	7.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.33)	6.02 ↑ (6)	7.83 ↑ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
71.8%

Draw
16%

Villarreal
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.2%

15.8%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76%

14.8%

12.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	7.7%	2.6%

Real Madrid - Villarreal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.75 - Real (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Villarreal (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Real (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (35 of 39 users predict this - 89.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.22% – 99.26%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Villarreal (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 16. Konate I. 22. Rudiger A. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 5. Bellingham J. 25. Diomande Y. 10. Mbappe K.	25. Gulacsi P. (G) 3. Freeman A. 6. Navarro P. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 8. Foyth J. (C) 18. Gueye P. 11. Akhomach I. 14. Comesana S. 10. Moleiro A. 22. Perez A.
Substitutes
6. Camavinga E. 17. Cucurella M. 21. Diaz B. 24. Dumfries D. 9. Endrick 19. Espi C. 13. Lunin A. (G) 26. Mestre S. (G) 27. Pitarch T. 20. Silva B. 7. Vinicius Junior	2. Costa L. 5. Diatta A. 27. El Jmili N. 28. Gaitan J. 1. Luiz Junior (G) 16. Macia C. 9. Mikautadze G. 7. Moreno G. 15. Mourino S. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 20. Romero C. 24. Saliba N.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Veiga R. 🟨,
19', Bellingham J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Carreras A. ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
52', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Vinicius Junior ↑,
56', Comesana S. ↓, Saliba N. ↑,
56', Foyth J. ↓, Romero C. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Diomande Y. ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
67', Akhomach I. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
67', Cardona S. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
68', Mourinho J. 🟨,
73', Vinicius Junior 🟥,
77', Guler A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
81', Konate I. 🟨,
83', Rudiger A. 🟨,
84', Navarro P. 🟨,
86', Diomande Y. ↓, Dumfries D. ↑,
86', Moleiro A. ↓, El Jmili N. ↑,
87', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
90+4', Mbappe K. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 4.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, Real enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Real: Asencio R. (Broken Leg) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Red Card) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Villarreal: Buchanan T. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Real has recorded 10 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 40:28 (averaging 2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 18:10 goals (averaging 2:1.1 per game).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 21.59% Villarreal: 0.27%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19:8	11	18
10	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13:13	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Elche - Real Madrid	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Villarreal - Levante	3:1 ✺
17.09.26	Málaga - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
14.09.26	Villarreal - Betis	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Villarreal - Deportivo A Coruña	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Villarreal - Real Madrid	0:2
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1
15.03.25	Villarreal - Real Madrid	1:2
05.10.24	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:0
19.05.24	Villarreal - Real Madrid	4:4
17.12.23	Real Madrid - Villarreal	4:1
08.04.23	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:3

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