Match Info

LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Diaz I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, Startimes Am'mobi, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 2
Argentina	16:00	DSports 1
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	06:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	21:00	DAZN
Azerbaijan	23:00	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	01:00	Begin, T Sports
Belarus	22:00	Belarus 5
Belgium	21:00	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Cambodia	02:00	MyTV
Canada	15:00	TSN+
China	03:00	Migu
Croatia	21:00	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Ecuador	14:00	DAZN
Estonia	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	22:00	Disney+
France	21:00	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	21:00	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	03:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	21:00	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	19:00	Disney+
India	00:30	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	22:00	ONE Sport
Italy	21:00	DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	01:00	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Lithuania	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	00:00	Medianet
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	13:00	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	22:00	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	08:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	22:00	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South America	—	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	Coupang Play
Spain	21:00	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 1
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	03:00	DAZN
Tajikistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	02:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	22:00	S Sport
Turkmenistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Disney+
Uruguay	16:00	DAZN, DSports 310
Usa	15:00	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	00:00	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	15:00	DAZN
Vietnam	02:00	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Real Madrid		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	1.33	6.00	7.50	Watch
	1.36	5.75	7.00
	1.30	5.80	8.50	Watch
	1.36	6.00	8.37
	1.36	6.3	7.2	Watch
	1.34	5.85	8.20
	1.33	6.05	8.04	Watch
	1.32	6.40	7.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.33)	6.02 ↑ (6)	7.83 ↑ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
71.8%

Draw
16%

Villarreal
12.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.2%

15.8%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76%

13.2%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	7.7%	2.6%

Real Madrid - Villarreal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.75 - Real (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Villarreal (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Real (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (35 of 39 users predict this - 89.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.22% – 99.26%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Villarreal (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 16. Konate I. 22. Rudiger A. 18. Carreras A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 5. Bellingham J. 25. Diomande Y. 10. Mbappe K.	25. Gulacsi P. (G) 3. Freeman A. 6. Navarro P. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 8. Foyth J. (C) 18. Gueye P. 11. Akhomach I. 14. Comesana S. 10. Moleiro A. 22. Perez A.
Substitutes
6. Camavinga E. 17. Cucurella M. 21. Diaz B. 24. Dumfries D. 9. Endrick 19. Espi C. 13. Lunin A. (G) 26. Mestre S. (G) 27. Pitarch T. 20. Silva B. 7. Vinicius Junior	2. Costa L. 5. Diatta A. 27. El Jmili N. 28. Gaitan J. 1. Luiz Junior (G) 16. Macia C. 9. Mikautadze G. 7. Moreno G. 15. Mourino S. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 20. Romero C. 24. Saliba N.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Veiga R. 🟨,
19', Bellingham J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Carreras A. ↓, Cucurella M. ↑,
52', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Vinicius Junior ↑,
56', Comesana S. ↓, Saliba N. ↑,
56', Foyth J. ↓, Romero C. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Diomande Y. ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
67', Akhomach I. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
67', Cardona S. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
68', Mourinho J. 🟨,
73', Vinicius Junior 🟥,
77', Guler A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
81', Konate I. 🟨,
83', Rudiger A. 🟨,
84', Navarro P. 🟨,
86', Diomande Y. ↓, Dumfries D. ↑,
86', Moleiro A. ↓, El Jmili N. ↑,
87', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
90+4', Mbappe K. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 4.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, Real enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Real: Asencio R. (Broken Leg) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Red Card) Mendy F. (Hip Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Villarreal: Buchanan T. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Real has recorded 10 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 40:28 (averaging 2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 18:10 goals (averaging 2:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25:10	15	24
10	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15:15	0	12

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 23.72% Villarreal: 0.38%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	2:1 ✺
15.09.26	Elche - Real Madrid	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWWL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
20.09.26	Villarreal - Levante	3:1 ✺
17.09.26	Málaga - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
14.09.26	Villarreal - Betis	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
05.09.26	Villarreal - Deportivo A Coruña	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Villarreal - Real Madrid	0:2
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1
15.03.25	Villarreal - Real Madrid	1:2
05.10.24	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:0
19.05.24	Villarreal - Real Madrid	4:4
17.12.23	Real Madrid - Villarreal	4:1
08.04.23	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:3

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