Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Saiz F. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Real Madrid Castilla		Alcorcón

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.25	2.88
	2.10	3.20	3.00
	2.02	3.20	3.20
	2.32	3.30	3.09
	2.05	3.35	3.54	Watch
	2.20	3.15	3.05
	2.29	3.38	2.98
	2.11	3.20	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.23)	3.25 (3.25)	3.09 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
42.3%

Draw
28.1%

Alcorcón
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

28.6%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

27.7%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Alcorcón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mestre S. (G) 2. Fortea J. 21. Naasei O. 5. Martinez J. 3. Aguado D. 7. Yanez D. 24. Pitarch T. 16. Martinez S. 11. Leiva A. 10. Fortuny P. (C) 19. Carvajal A.	13. Banuz M. (G) 22. Irurita X. 4. Mayorga A. 5. Lancho J. 17. Cuesta M. 20. Berlanga M. 6. Rivera P. 10. Vacas L. 11. Ouhdadi O. 7. Aparicio E. (C) 9. Davo
Substitutes
12. Arroyo Sanchez D. (G) 17. Ciria A. 35. Espinosa J. 23. Fati L. 9. Fettal R. 20. Martin R. 22. Mesonero D. 13. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 4. Rivas M. 36. Ukpeigbe M.	35. Arcos D. 8. Caravaca T. 30. Di Domenico N. 2. Domingo Ciuraneta P. 3. Gaixas A. 23. Ibanez R. 16. Manzanara F. 1. Marti O. (G) 18. Melero G. 19. Palmer D. 24. Perez L. 21. Sabina F.
Coaches
Lopez de Lerma J.	Justo F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 1 - 0, Fortuny P. (Penalty Awarded),
39', 1 - 1, Mayorga A. ⚽, Aparicio E. (A),
45+1', 1 - 2, Aparicio E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Pitarch T. 🟨,
61', Carvajal A. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
61', Yanez D. ↓, Ciria A. ↑,
61', Leiva A. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
66', Ouhdadi O. 🟨,
69', Berlanga M. ↓, Di Domenico N. ↑,
69', Aparicio E. ↓, Melero G. ↑,
78', Fortuny P. ↓, Martin R. ↑,
78', Martinez S. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
83', Rivera P. ↓, Manzanara F. ↑,
83', Irurita X. ↓, Domingo Ciuraneta P. ↑,
84', Di Domenico N. 🟨,
89', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Ibanez R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Recently, Real Madrid Castilla has faced a series of away games on the road.

Real Madrid Castilla is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid Castilla has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:19 (averaging 1.5:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Real Madrid Castilla against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 9:10 goals (averaging 1.3:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Alcorcon	6	3	3	0	13:4	9	12
12	Real Madrid B	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Alcorcón - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 29.84%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
23.09.26	Sant Andreu - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Águilas - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Juventud de Torremolinos	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Teruel - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLWTT
- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.09.26	Alcorcón - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Antequera - Alcorcón	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Alcorcón - CE Europa	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Águilas - Alcorcón	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
18.08.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.08.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
22.02.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	2:1
20.10.24	Alcorcón - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
05.02.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	1:1
02.10.22	Alcorcón - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1
Club Friendly
07.08.19	Alcorcón - Real Madrid Castilla	0:3
13.08.14	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	1:4

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