The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Real Monarchs 26.1%
Draw 22.6%
Ventura County 51.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38%
25.9%
36%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.4%
26.9%
34.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Monarchs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Monarchs's form might have worsened.
Ventura County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ventura County's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Monarchs than the current prediction. (+13.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Monarchs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ventura County than the current prediction. (-16.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ventura County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Real Monarchs - Ventura County Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
24. Kerkvliet M. (C) 88. Ream L. 64. Kropp D. 77. Mesalles R. 41. Villa G. 45. Silva N. 46. Murphy I. 76. O'Gara L. 30. Anderson O. 91. Lifferth Z. 47. Ewald F.
41. Conlon S. (G) 88. Vanney M. 60. Hernandez S. (C) 73. Martinez E. 61. Bank P. 45. Garcia V. 90. Phan B. 74. Ittycheria D. 68. Muller L. 95. Preston E. 57. Placias J.
Substitutes
99. Alphin R. (G) 61. Amparo I. 71. Bwana H. 44. Cowell C. 50. Djiro L. 48. Hashimoto R. 37. Rivera L. 35. Rocio D. 84. Sargis H.
87. Arnold G. 50. Dalgado R. 80. Djieze J. 64. Pepe 96. Vanney C. 47. Vilamitjana A. 91. Walker W.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Villa G. 🟨,
24', Anderson O. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Silva N. ⚽, Lifferth Z. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
64', Muller L. 🟨,
64', Martinez E. ↓, Pepe ↑,
64', Bank P. ↓, Dalgado R. ↑,
68', Villa G. ↓, Sargis H. ↑,
68', Lifferth Z. ↓, Djiro L. ↑,
73', Muller L. ↓, Vanney C. ↑,
73', Garcia V. ↓, Arnold G. ↑,
76', O'Gara L. ↓, Amparo I. ↑,
76', Silva N. ↓, Hashimoto R. ↑,
77', Vanney M. 🟨,
80', Preston E. ↓, Djieze J. ↑,
87', 2 - 0, Anderson O. ⚽,
90+2', Anderson O. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 1, Djieze J. ⚽,
Preview
Ventura County is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Monarchs won 1.
Recent results have been tough for Real Monarchs (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Performances by Ventura County have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Ventura County could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Real Monarchs has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:18 (averaging 1.3:2.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Real Monarchs against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:4 goals (averaging 1.7:1.3 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Real Monarchs - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 38.04%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
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Kerkvliet M. (C) 
Ewald F. 
Bwana H. 
Djiro L. 
Arnold G. 
Djieze J. 
Vilamitjana A. 
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