The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Real Monarchs 33.7%
Draw 24.4%
Tacoma Defiance 41.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38.8%
25.2%
36%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.9%
24.6%
36.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Monarchs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Monarchs's form might have worsened.
Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tacoma Defiance's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Monarchs than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
24. Kerkvliet M. (G) 88. Ream L. 47. Ewald F. 84. Sargis H. 77. Mesalles R. 45. Silva N. 64. Kropp D. 46. Murphy I. 30. Anderson O. 91. Lifferth Z. 38. Riquelme A.
50. Anchor M. (G) 40. O'Neill M. 53. Sandnes G. 58. Winslow J. 84. Gaffney C. 63. Cisneros-Tafolla B. 34. Robles D. 48. Phoenix C. 30. Carli E. 42. Jauregui R. 81. Bronnik M.
Substitutes
99. Alphin R. (G) 44. Cowell C. 50. Djiro L. 48. Hashimoto R. 51. Poll K. 37. Rivera L. 35. Rocio D.
59. Bell M. 38. Bonilla K. 80. Brown D. 43. Hassan O. 99. Lucero L. 55. Rios J. 41. Shour M. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Riquelme A. 🟨,
41', Winslow J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, Ewald F. ⚽, Riquelme A. (A),
62', Cisneros-Tafolla B. ↓, Rios J. ↑,
62', Jauregui R. ↓, Bell M. ↑,
74', Lifferth Z. ↓, Djiro L. ↑,
79', Robles D. ↓, Lucero L. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Ewald F. ⚽, Riquelme A. (A),
88', Murphy I. ↓, Poll K. ↑,
88', Silva N. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Djiro L. ⚽,
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Monarchs won 3.
Real Monarchs is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Tacoma has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Tacoma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Real Monarchs has had a series of away games.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
We predict that Tacoma will win today's game, with odds of 2.45.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Monarchs won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 36:31. (average 1.8:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Real Monarchs won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 2.1:1.1).
Last Results with these Odds
Real Monarchs - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 38.83%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
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Kerkvliet M. (G) 
Ewald F. 
Riquelme A. 
Anchor M. (G) 
Phoenix C. 
Djiro L. 
Bell M. 
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