Match Info

MLS Next Pro

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Dignity Health Sports Park (Carson, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Next Pro
World	OneFootball TV


	Ventura County		Tacoma Defiance

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.60	2.45
	2.15	3.50	2.70
	2.38	4.08	2.55
	2.04	3.92	3.08	Watch
	2.35	4.00	2.40
	2.19	3.82	2.85	Watch
	2.14	3.65	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.12)	3.8 ↑ (3.6)	2.67 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ventura County
41.4%

Draw
24.2%

Tacoma Defiance
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

23.3%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ventura County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ventura County than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Conlon S. (G) 88. Vanney M. 64. Pepe 60. Hernandez S. (C) 50. Dalgado R. 45. Garcia V. 87. Arnold G. 80. Djieze J. 68. Muller L. 74. Ittycheria D. 57. Placias J.	50. Anchor M. (C) 4. Sailor R. 53. Sandnes G. 35. Lopez A. 84. Gaffney C. 40. O'Neill M. 32. Gnaulati X. 80. Brown D. 8. Clark C. 42. Jauregui R. 81. Bronnik M.
Substitutes
61. Bank P. 73. Martinez E. 92. Nielsen N. 90. Phan B. 95. Preston E. 47. Vilamitjana A.	59. Bell M. 38. Bonilla K. 30. Carli E. 43. Hassan O. 48. Phoenix C. 55. Rios J. 34. Robles D. 41. Shour M. (G) 58. Winslow J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Lopez A. 🟨,
20', Garcia V. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Clark C. ↓, Carli E. ↑,
56', 1 - 0, Placias J. ⚽, Garcia V. (A),
61', 2 - 0, Ittycheria D. ⚽, Dalgado R. (A),
62', Sailor R. ↓, Winslow J. ↑,
67', Jauregui R. ↓, Phoenix C. ↑,
67', Brown D. ↓, Bell M. ↑,
69', Garcia V. ↓, Preston E. ↑,
69', Arnold G. ↓, Vilamitjana A. ↑,
69', Djieze J. ↓, Phan B. ↑,
80', 3 - 0, Preston E. ⚽, Muller L. (A),
82', Ittycheria D. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
83', Gaffney C. ↓, Hassan O. ↑,
88', Dalgado R. ↓, Bank P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ventura County won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ventura County may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Ventura County will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ventura County won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 2.3:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ventura County won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 3:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Tacoma Defiance - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.07%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ventura County FC
MLS Next Pro
10.09.26	San Jose Earthquakes 2 - Ventura County	555:552 ✺
05.09.26	Los Angeles 2 - Ventura County	1:2 penalties ✺
28.08.26	Colorado Rapids 2 - Ventura County	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Ventura County - Portland Timbers 2	2:3 penalties ✺
14.08.26	Houston Dynamo 2 - Ventura County	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LWWLW
- Tacoma Defiance
MLS Next Pro
05.09.26	San Jose Earthquakes 2 - Tacoma Defiance	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Real Monarchs - Tacoma Defiance	3:0 ✺
24.08.26	Tacoma Defiance - Sporting Kansas City II	4:0 ✺
16.08.26	Los Angeles 2 - Tacoma Defiance	4:3 ✺
08.08.26	North Texas - Tacoma Defiance	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

MLS Next Pro
22.05.26	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	1:0
29.03.26	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	0:1
01.08.25	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	4:6
02.05.25	Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance	1:2
07.03.25	Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance	3:2
20.10.24	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	4:0
18.08.24	Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County	3:2 penalties

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