Match Info

Copa Pacena - Round 6

Date: 30 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio IV Centenario (Tarija)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Entel Gol 56


	Real Tomayapo		Nacional Potosí

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.40	2.35
	2.40	3.50	2.33	Watch
	2.19	3.6	2.73
	2.29	3.75	2.73	Watch
	2.05	3.3	2.55
	2.3	3.89	2.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.18)	3.57 ↓ (3.72)	2.58 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Tomayapo
39.7%

Draw
25.3%

Nacional Potosí
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

25%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

24.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Tomayapo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Nacional Potosí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Tomayapo than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Potosí than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Real Tomayapo - Nacional Potosí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cardenas L. (G) 19. Robson 24. Robles D. 17. Bejarano M. (C) 32. Suarez R. 33. Mamani K. 5. Montenegro L. S. 8. Mamani J. 64. Senzano J. 18. Eguez R. 11. Nouet F.	23. Galindo P. (G) 21. Baldomar O. 5. Alvarez S. 33. Demiquel L. 16. Torrico A. 11. Tomianovic M. 28. Pena S. 15. Arce Pari J. 18. Azogue P. (C) 29. Weslen Junior 19. Alvarez W.
Substitutes
43. Aguilera C. 7. Arabe C. 35. Castillo J. 99. Cervantes A. 36. Chavez J. 25. Cuellar Orti R. 14. Galvez V. 15. Guerra J. 6. Melgar V. 21. Ramallo D. 12. Ribera J. 27. Ruan Costa	27. Abastoflor C. 3. Amarilla N. 1. Arauz E. (G) 20. Cano E. 17. Garcia A. 14. Juan Batista 30. Martinez Y. 34. Medina K. 25. Orellana J. 8. Pavia L. 7. Solis M. 99. Villalba D.
Coaches
Alfonso J.	Gutierrez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Montenegro L. S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arce Pari J. ↓, Medina K. ↑,
56', Suarez R. 🟨,
65', Montenegro L. S. ↓, Ramallo D. ↑,
65', Senzano J. ↓, Galvez V. ↑,
67', Weslen Junior ↓, Cano E. ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Eguez R. ⚽, Ramallo D. (A),
73', Pena S. ↓, Villalba D. ↑,
82', Eguez R. ↓, Arabe C. ↑,
82', Nouet F. ↓, Ruan Costa ↑,
86', Baldomar O. ↓, Juan Batista ↑,
90+5', 🟨,
90+10', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tomayapo won 0.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Tomayapo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Tomayapo has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Tomayapo holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Tomayapo has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:23 (averaging 0.8:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tomayapo against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 6:1 goals (averaging 1.2:0.2 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional Potosí - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.38%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Tomayapo
Bolivian Copa Pacena
27.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Real Oruro	2:1 ✺
21.09.26	Independiente Petroleros - Real Tomayapo	5:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
17.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Oriente Petrolero	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Bolívar	1:2 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
10.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Always Ready	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WLLLW
- Nacional Potosí
Bolivian Copa Pacena
25.09.26	Nacional Potosí - Always Ready	9:0 ✺
22.09.26	Nacional Potosí - Real Potosí	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Real Potosí - Nacional Potosí	2:2 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
16.09.26	Nacional Potosí - Always Ready	0:4 ✺
12.09.26	GVCD San José - Nacional Potosí	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Copa Pacena
03.09.26	Nacional Potosí - Real Tomayapo	5:1
Bolivian Division Profesional
26.07.26	Nacional Potosí - Real Tomayapo	4:1
14.12.25	Nacional Potosí - Real Tomayapo	1:0
22.07.25	Real Tomayapo - Nacional Potosí	0:1
Club Friendly
23.03.25	Nacional Potosí - Real Tomayapo	1:1
Bolivian Division Profesional
30.10.24	Nacional Potosí - Real Tomayapo	1:0
20.07.24	Real Tomayapo - Nacional Potosí	2:0

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