Match Info

Copa Pacena - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Patria (Sucre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bolivia	Entel Gol 56


	Independiente Petroleros		Real Tomayapo

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.60	3.90
	1.64	3.65	4.10	Watch
	1.74	3.92	3.62
	1.77	4.13	3.8	Watch
	1.62	3.8	3.5
	1.64	3.9	4.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.77)	3.83 ↓ (3.95)	3.84 ↓ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Petroleros
53.2%

Draw
23.4%

Real Tomayapo
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

23.5%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

22.9%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Petroleros has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Real Tomayapo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Petroleros than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Tomayapo than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Independiente Petroleros - Real Tomayapo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Tomayapo (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tomayapo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez J. (G) 2. Torres S. 14. Urdininea C. 50. Roni Santos 3. Crescencio L. 4. Rodriguez L. 20. Mercado A. 16. Chavez Suarez S. 19. Cristaldo G. (C) 9. Gean 93. Willie	22. Adorno C. (G) 5. Montenegro L. S. 33. Mamani K. 24. Robles D. 32. Suarez R. 17. Bejarano M. (C) 64. Senzano J. 21. Ramallo D. 8. Mamani J. 11. Nouet F. 99. Cervantes A.
Substitutes
91. Alvarez G. 15. Bejarano J. 7. Cardozo R. 39. Grass P. 99. Jeferson Carioca 34. Mendoza G. 5. Palma L. 6. Rojas D. 26. Sanchez K. 28. Soleto W. 12. Vera J. (G) 77. Zamora R.	7. Arabe C. 13. Barbery Gil M. G. 1. Cardenas L. (G) 35. Castillo J. 25. Cuellar Orti R. 14. Galvez V. 15. Guerra J. 6. Melgar V. 12. Ribera J.
Coaches
Grass J.	Alfonso J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Gean ⚽, Cristaldo G. (A),
10', 2 - 0, Gean ⚽,
32', 3 - 0, Willie ⚽, Mercado A. (A),
33', Cervantes A. 🟨,
38', 4 - 0, Cristaldo G. ⚽, Rodriguez L. (A),
41', Chavez Suarez S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ramallo D. ↓, Ribera J. ↑,
46', Chavez Suarez S. ↓, Sanchez K. ↑,
46', Montenegro L. S. ↓, Arabe C. ↑,
46', Suarez R. ↓, Melgar V. ↑,
46', Senzano J. ↓, Galvez V. ↑,
61', Willie 🟨,
64', Nouet F. ↓, Cuellar Orti R. ↑,
66', Gean ↓, Jeferson Carioca ↑,
67', Mercado A. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,
71', Robles D. (Penalty Awarded),
72', 5 - 0, Willie ⚽, Jeferson Carioca (A),
76', Torres S. ↓, Zamora R. ↑,
76', Urdininea C. ↓, Bejarano J. ↑,
90+3', 5 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Petroleros won 2.

Ind Petroleros has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Tomayapo has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ind Petroleros may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Ind Petroleros is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ind Petroleros has recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 35:29 (averaging 1.8:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ind Petroleros against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 15:8 goals (averaging 1.7:0.9 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Tomayapo - the odds 3.89 are the expected chance of winning is 23.91%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Petroleros
Bolivian Division Profesional
18.09.26	Independiente Petroleros - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	1:3 ✺
13.09.26	Universitario de Vinto - Independiente Petroleros	3:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
10.09.26	Bolívar - Independiente Petroleros	1:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.09.26	Independiente Petroleros - Bolívar	0:4 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
31.08.26	Real Tomayapo - Independiente Petroleros	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LLTLL
- Real Tomayapo
Bolivian Division Profesional
17.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Oriente Petrolero	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Bolívar	1:2 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
10.09.26	Real Tomayapo - Always Ready	2:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.09.26	The Strongest - Real Tomayapo	3:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
03.09.26	Nacional Potosí - Real Tomayapo	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Bolivian Copa Pacena
31.08.26	Real Tomayapo - Independiente Petroleros	3:0
Bolivian Division Profesional
12.07.26	Real Tomayapo - Independiente Petroleros	2:1
Bolivian Torneo Amistoso de Verano
08.02.26	Independiente Petroleros - Real Tomayapo	5:2
04.02.26	Real Tomayapo - Independiente Petroleros	2:1
Bolivian Copa Pacena
30.10.25	Real Tomayapo - Independiente Petroleros	3:6
30.09.25	Independiente Petroleros - Real Tomayapo	2:0
Bolivian Division Profesional
27.09.25	Independiente Petroleros - Real Tomayapo	2:1

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