Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Real Ávila		Atlético Astorga

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	4.25
	1.84	3.1	4.83
	1.81	3.15	4.62	Watch
	1.83	2.9	4.4
	1.86	3.22	4.49
	1.83	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.61)	3.08 ↓ (3.24)	4.52 ↓ (5.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Ávila
49.9%

Draw
29.8%

Atlético Astorga
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

27.9%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

26.7%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Ávila has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Real Ávila's form might have worsened.

Atlético Astorga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Ávila than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Ávila, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Astorga than the current prediction. (-5%)

Real Ávila - Atlético Astorga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Perez C. ⚽,
10', 1 - 1, El Battioui A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
57', 1 - 2, Ceinos D. ⚽,
64', 2 - 2, Lorenzo D. ⚽,
68', 2 - 3, Manso M. A. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 4, Canito ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Ávila won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Atlético Astorga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Ávila is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Real Ávila won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Ávila won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Atl. Astorga	5	1	0	4	5:7	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Ávila
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
25.01.26	Lealtad - Real Ávila	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Real Ávila - UD Ourense	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Bergantiños - Real Ávila	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Real Ávila - Rayo Cantabria	3:3 ✺
21.12.25	Deportivo A Coruña B - Real Ávila	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTTL
- Atlético Astorga
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
24.01.26	Atlético Astorga - Salamanca	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Coruxo - Atlético Astorga	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Atlético Astorga - Valladolid B	1:4 ✺
04.01.26	Marino de Luanco - Atlético Astorga	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Atlético Astorga - Numancia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
06.09.25	Atlético Astorga - Real Ávila	1:3
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
25.11.23	Atlético Astorga - Real Ávila	0:1
14.01.23	Atlético Astorga - Real Ávila	0:0
11.09.22	Real Ávila - Atlético Astorga	3:3
02.04.22	Atlético Astorga - Real Ávila	0:0
21.11.21	Real Ávila - Atlético Astorga	0:1
02.02.20	Real Ávila - Atlético Astorga	1:0

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