Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal Cicero De Souza Marques (Bragança Paulista)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Serbia	Arena Premium 5


	Red Bull Bragantino		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.42	3.05	2.98
	2.49	3.18	3.21
	2.60	3.00	2.89	Watch
	2.38	2.9	3
	2.42	3.19	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.49)	3.07 ↑ (3.02)	3.08 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Bragantino
38.7%

Draw
30.7%

São Paulo
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

30.7%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

31.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1%)

Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cleiton (G) 34. Hurtado A. 4. Alix Vinicius (C) 16. Gustavo Marques 29. Juninho Capixaba 32. Herrera J. 6. Gabriel 22. Gustavo Neves 30. Mosquera H. 21. Lucas Barbosa 8. Eduardo Sasha	23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 8. Marcos Antonio 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)
Substitutes
51. Caue Nascimento 3. Eduardo Santos 5. Fabinho 35. Matheus Fernandes 14. Pedro Henrique 9. Pitta I. 20. Rodriguinho 15. Sosa I. 52. Tavares R. 18. Tiago Volpi (G) 17. Vinicinho 28. Yuri Leles	17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 42. Maik 4. Matheus Doria 29. Pablo Maia 5. Robert Arboleda 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,
31', Gabriel 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Herrera J. ⚽,
40', Herrera J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Lucas Barbosa 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Sabino ⚽, Danielzinho (A),
59', Gustavo Neves ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
59', Gabriel ↓, Matheus Fernandes ↑,
63', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
66', Luciano 🟨,
68', Danielzinho ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
68', Lucas Moura ↓, Cauly ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Lucas Ramon (A),
73', Herrera J. ↓, Pitta I. ↑,
82', Juninho Capixaba 🟨,
83', Hurtado A. ↓, Tavares R. ↑,
83', Eduardo Sasha ↓, Vinicinho ↑,
83', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
84', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
89', Diaz E. 🟨,
90+2', Bobadilla D. ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 2.

RB Bragantino has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Paulo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

RB Bragantino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.

RB Bragantino might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in RB Bragantino: Fabricio (Inactive) Rodriguez G. (Knee Injury) Sant'Anna A. (Inactive) Vanderlan (Inactive)

There will not play in São Paulo: Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucca Marques (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Bragantino won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.5:1.3).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Sao Paulo: 0.24% Bragantino: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37

Last Results with these Odds

Red Bull Bragantino - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.13%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TTLWL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	São Paulo - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Coritiba - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
08.11.25	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1
16.07.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	2:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.24	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:1
06.07.24	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.02.24	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:2

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