Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Salzburg)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Servus TV
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Red Bull Salzburg		Paphos

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.75	5.50	Watch
	1.47	4.75	6.25
	1.48	4.40	5.80	Watch
	1.43	4.82	6.60
	1.53	4.37	5.93	Watch
	1.41	4.75	6.40
	1.43	4.76	6.93	Watch
	1.44	4.60	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.66)	4.65 ↑ (3.9)	6.18 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Salzburg
64.6%

Draw
20.2%

Paphos
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

23.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

23.1%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Red Bull Salzburg's performance.

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Red Bull Salzburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.8%	6.8%	3.4%

Red Bull Salzburg - Paphos Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Salzburg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Red Bull Salzburg will win (52 of 58 users predict this - 89.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.82% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
52. Zawieschitzky C. (G) 18. Veratschnig N. (C) 44. Boma K. 47. Zabransky V. 31. Schmid D. 5. Diabate S. 32. Barry A. 20. Baidoo E. 30. Diakite G. 23. Redzic D. 11. Vertessen Y.	99. Majecki R. (G) 5. Goldar D. 4. David Luiz (C) 14. Ioannou N. 8. Quina D. 50. Brito A. 26. Sunjic I. 6. Guga 20. Biel 18. Lele 30. Dragomir V.
Substitutes
43. Aguilar E. 33. Camara A. 21. Drexler T. 8. Kitano S. 14. Kjaergaard M. 19. Konate K. 13. Kratzig F. 15. Mazurek B. 4. Mellberg J. 39. Morgalla L. 41. Sarcevic N. (G) 9. Tabakovic H.	7. Bruno 60. Efzona C. 72. Ioannou K. 61. Kais M. 47. Mammadov M. 42. Michael G. 13. Moumi Ngamaleu N. 71. Papastylianou M. (G) 88. Pepe 82. Petrou P. (G) 12. Sema K.
Coaches
Rohl D.	Sa Pinto R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', David Luiz 🟨,
43', Quina D. ↓, Sema K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sema K. 🟨,
58', Diabate S. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
64', Redzic D. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
65', Vertessen Y. ↓, Konate K. ↑,
70', Diakite G. ↓, Aguilar E. ↑,
70', Baidoo E. ↓, Tabakovic H. ↑,
75', Barry A. 🟨,
80', Brito A. ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
81', Sunjic I. 🟨,
88', 1 - 0, Tabakovic H. ⚽,
88', Dragomir V. ↓, Pepe ↑,
90+3', Sema K. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Recent performances by Salzburg have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paphos is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Salzburg has had a series of home games.

Recently, Paphos has had a series of away games.

In this match, Salzburg is considered a favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Salzburg: 1.2%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1:0	1	3

Last Results with these Odds

Red Bull Salzburg - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 56.22%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga
01.08.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Hartberg	1:0 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
25.07.26	Oberwart - Red Bull Salzburg	1:7 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Mamelodi Sundowns	Canceled ✺
15.07.26	Red Bull Salzburg - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:2 ✺
15.07.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Gamba Osaka	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WW?LL
- Paphos FC
UEFA Europa League
30.07.26	Paphos - Hajduk Split	4:0 AET ✺
23.07.26	Hajduk Split - Paphos	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.26	Slovan Bratislava - Paphos	3:2 ✺
12.07.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Paphos	1:0 ✺
08.07.26	Jablonec - Paphos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLLT

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