Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Poljud (Split)

Referee: Harvey R. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Hajduk TV
Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Hajduk Split		Paphos

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.00	3.30	Watch
	2.15	3.20	3.50
	2.10	3.20	3.35	Watch
	2.14	3.10	3.76
	2.07	3.32	3.59	Watch
	2.10	3.00	3.65
	2.33	3.14	3.29	Watch
	2.00	3.10	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.7)	3.13 ↑ (3.1)	3.47 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hajduk Split
43.6%

Draw
29.6%

Paphos
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.9%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

28.8%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hajduk Split has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hajduk Split's performance.

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paphos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hajduk Split than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hajduk Split that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paphos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Hajduk Split - Paphos Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Hajduk will win (votes: 48 - 87.3%). Paphos will win (votes: 4 - 7.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hajduk: 78.5% – 96.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hajduk Split will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silic T. (G) 22. Acapandie M. 15. Maresic D. 5. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 32. Hrgovic S. 21. Pukstas R. 4. Pajaziti A. 28. Brajkovic R. 9. de Almeida D. 17. Melnjak D. (C) 11. Sego M.	99. Majecki R. (G) 5. Goldar D. 4. David Luiz (C) 3. Mmaee S. 11. Jaja 88. Pepe 26. Sunjic I. 14. Ioannou N. 30. Dragomir V. 18. Lele 20. Biel
Substitutes
19. Brruti E. 20. del Moral A. 26. Guram A. 38. Hodak L. 1. Ivusic I. (G) 10. Livaja M. 14. Raci R. 7. Sanyang A. 36. Skelin M. 37. Skoko N. 44. Stipica D. (G) 16. Sutalo A.	50. Brito A. 7. Bruno 60. Evzona C. 6. Guga 72. Ioannou K. 61. Kais M. 47. Mammadov M. 42. Michael G. 71. Papastylianou M. (G) 82. Petrou P. (G) 8. Quina D. 12. Sema K.
Coaches
Garcia G.	Sa Pinto R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Pajaziti A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Ioannou N. 🟨,
56', 1 - 0, Sego M. ⚽,
63', Pepe ↓, Brito A. ↑,
63', Goldar D. ↓, Bruno ↑,
63', Brito A. 🟨,
64', 2 - 0, Melnjak D. ⚽, Acapandie M. (A),
74', Dragomir V. ↓, Quina D. ↑,
74', Sunjic I. ↓, Guga ↑,
77', Maresic D. ↓, Skelin M. ↑,
77', Sego M. ↓, Livaja M. ↑,
77', de Almeida D. ↓, del Moral A. ↑,
83', Melnjak D. ↓, Guram A. ↑,
87', Guram A. 🟨,
88', del Moral A. 🟨,
90+2', Hrgovic S. ↓, Raci R. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Hajduk is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paphos's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Hajduk might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa League
16.07.26	Žilina - Hajduk Split	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Hajduk Split - Žilina	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Celje - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	LNZ Cherkasy - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
23.06.26	Shkendija Tetovo - Hajduk Split	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWWW
- Paphos FC
Club Friendly
16.07.26	Slovan Bratislava - Paphos	3:2 ✺
12.07.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Paphos	1:0 ✺
08.07.26	Jablonec - Paphos	0:0 ✺
03.07.26	Cracovia - Paphos	1:2 ✺
Cypriot Cup
29.05.26	Apollon Limassol - Paphos	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLTWW

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