Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Skonto stadions (Riga) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lata F. (Alb)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	13:45	Disney+
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	13:45	Disney+
Colombia	11:45	Disney+
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Estonia	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 18
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	16:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Kazakhstan	22:45	Qazsport
Lithuania	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	10:45	Disney+
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	11:45	Disney+
Philippines	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	17:45	DAZN / App
Singapore	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Thailand	23:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 17
United Kingdom	17:45	HBO Max
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+


	Riga		Kairat

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.33
	1.90	3.25	3.80
	1.85	3.4	4.1
	1.9	3.57	4.38
	1.87	3.55	4.23	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4.3
	1.95	3.55	4.13
	1.88	3.65	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.91)	3.5 ↓ (3.52)	4.2 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Riga
50.4%

Draw
27%

Kairat
22.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.5%

26.9%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

26.5%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.1%	11.3%	7.5%

Riga - Kairat Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Riga (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Riga will win (43 of 53 users predict this - 81.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.6% – 91.66%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Piric K. (G) 23. Tonisevs M. 21. Musah B. 5. Wassom K. 13. Jurkovskis R. (C) 40. Ankrah A. 8. Iago Siqueira 22. Diop M. 18. Oulad M'Hand S. 7. Aouani R. 19. Badamosi M.	1. Anarbekov T. (G) 20. Tapalov E. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 25. Shirobokov A. 3. Mata L. 22. Mendonsa G. 13. Oksanen J. 24. Mrynskiy A. 28. Gual M. 19. Jukkola O. 9. Edmilson
Substitutes
34. Cernomordijs A. 44. Kazainis M. (G) 91. Orols F. (G) 10. Reginaldo Ramires 15. Robalo Pedro S. L. 6. Saco C. 25. Taiwo A.	27. Abish M. 8. Baybek O. 81. Bekbolat I. 15. Birkurmanov M. 82. Kalmurza S. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 5. Kurgin L. 6. Sadybekov A. 17. Tuyakbaev A.
Coaches
Gula A.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Gual M. (Penalty Awarded),
12', 1 - 1, Oulad M'Hand S. ⚽, Tonisevs M. (A),
23', Oksanen J. 🟨,
28', Badamosi M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Tapalov E. 🟨,
61', Badamosi M. ↓, Reginaldo Ramires ↑,
73', Edmilson ↓, Bekbolat I. ↑,
79', Mrynskiy A. ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
80', Mendonsa G. ↓, Kasabulat D. ↑,
86', Aouani R. ↓, Robalo Pedro S. L. ↑,
86', Diop M. ↓, Saco C. ↑,
90+3', Martynovich A. 🟨,

Preview

Riga has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Kairat has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this matchup, Riga is considered the favorite to take the win.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Riga FC	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	2:6	-4	1

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Kairat Almaty: 0.16% Riga FC: 0.16%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Riga FC
Latvian Virsliga
10.10.26	Tukums 2000 - Riga	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Jelgava - Riga	0:1 ✺
15.09.26	Super Nova - Riga	0:1 ✺
11.09.26	Riga - Auda Riga	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWWTT
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
10.10.26	Kairat - Zhetysu	1:0 ✺
17.09.26	Astana - Kairat	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Kairat - Tobol Kostanay	1:4 ✺
09.09.26	Kairat - Zhenis	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Kairat	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLLWW

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