Match Info

Virsliga - Round 24

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Jana Skredela stadions (Riga)


	Super Nova		Riga

	1	X	2
				Watch
	8.75	5.50	1.23
	14.5	5.25	1.18	Watch
	19.56	8.32	1.15
	9.5	5.69	1.27	Watch
	19	8.2	1.11
	11.3	7.34	1.18	Watch
	11	6.4	1.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.37 ↑ (7.5)	6.67 ↑ (4.75)	1.18 ↓ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Super Nova
7%

Draw
14%

Riga
79%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

12%

18.9%

69.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.6%

18.3%

71.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Super Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Riga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Riga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Super Nova than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Riga than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Riga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Super Nova - Riga Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Riga will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Riga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Veisbuks D. (G) 5. Cirulis J. 25. Oss M. (C) 16. Romanovs K. 3. Iida R. 6. Emsis E. 15. Kirss R. 24. Sitjakovs R. 8. Patrikejevs I. 9. Bamba 10. Lizunovs V.	91. Orols F. (G) 23. Tonisevs M. 34. Cernomordijs A. (C) 5. Wassom K. 17. Salazar A. 4. Galo O. 40. Ankrah A. 22. Diop M. 18. Oulad M'Hand S. 7. Aouani R. 10. Reginaldo Ramires
Substitutes
2. Augusts K. 29. Baghdasaryan A. 7. Glaudans A. 20. Ndiaye I. 27. Pathe N. 31. Pipcans V. (G) 22. Skadmanis K. 21. Tihonovics M. 18. Vasilevskis M.	19. Badamosi M. 99. Caio Ferreira 8. Iago Siqueira 13. Jurkovskis R. 44. Kazainis M. (G) 21. Musah B. 15. Robalo Pedro S. L. 6. Saco C. 25. Taiwo A.
Coaches
Rafalskis M.	Gula A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Iida R. 🟨,
35', Emsis E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Tonisevs M. 🟨,
51', Reginaldo Ramires 🟨,
59', Kirss R. 🟨,
61', Cernomordijs A. 🟨,
62', Diop M. ↓, Taiwo A. ↑,
62', Ankrah A. ↓, Caio Ferreira ↑,
62', Reginaldo Ramires ↓, Badamosi M. ↑,
62', Aouani R. ↓, Iago Siqueira ↑,
67', Kirss R. ↓, Glaudans A. ↑,
74', Bamba ↓, Tihonovics M. ↑,
82', Tonisevs M. ↓, Jurkovskis R. ↑,
84', Emsis E. ↓, Pathe N. ↑,
85', Badamosi M. 🟨,
90', Oulad M'Hand S. 🟨,
90+1', 0 - 1, Badamosi M. ⚽, Jurkovskis R. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 0.

In recent matches, Super Nova has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Riga is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Riga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Riga is the obvious favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Super Nova won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 9:56. (average 0.6:3.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Super Nova won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 7:40. (average 0.8:4.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Riga FC	32	23	7	2	88:30	58	76
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31:45	-14	38

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Super Nova FC
Latvian Virsliga
10.09.26	Super Nova - Tukums 2000	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Jelgava - Super Nova	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Auda Riga - Super Nova	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Super Nova - BFC Daugavpils	0:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
16.08.26	Super Nova - RFS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 WWTTL
- Riga FC
Latvian Virsliga
11.09.26	Riga - Auda Riga	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
Latvian Cup
03.09.26	RFS - Riga	2:3 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
31.08.26	Liepāja - Riga	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Riga - KÍ Klaksvík	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
24.05.26	Riga - Super Nova	3:0
14.04.26	Super Nova - Riga	1:4
30.08.25	Super Nova - Riga	2:6
22.06.25	Riga - Super Nova	2:0
01.05.25	Super Nova - Riga	1:5
06.03.25	Riga - Super Nova	2:0
29.10.23	Riga - Super Nova	1:1

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