Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 1

Date: 13 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Rio Ave		Chaves

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	4	Watch
	1.93	3.3	3.9	Watch
	1.81	3.4	4.3
	1.92	3.5	4.51
	1.75	3.2	4	Watch
	1.85	3.55	4.33	Watch
	1.92	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.32)	3.37 ↑ (3.12)	4.19 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
50.1%

Draw
27.7%

Chaves
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.7%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

28.9%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rio Ave's performance.

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chaves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rio Ave that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chaves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	5%	5%

Rio Ave - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 18 - 90%). Chaves will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rio Ave: 76.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
82. Magrao (G) 23. Josue Sa 33. Aderllan Santos 42. Pantalon R. 20. Costinha 10. Oudrhiri A. 6. Guga (C) 77. Fabio Ronaldo 14. Joca 9. Ruiz L. 7. Hernani	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Sylla H. 4. Bruno Rodrigues 3. Ygor Nogueira 5. Langa B. A. 7. Bernardo Sousa 28. Nwakali K. 8. Pedro J. (C) 33. Cruz S. 9. Paulo Victor 23. Hernandez H.
Substitutes
95. Andre Pereira 22. Boateng E. 1. Flores L. (G) 8. Gomes V. 21. Graca J. 16. Savio 17. Ukra 4. William P. 70. Ze Manuel	24. Edu 72. Ferreira de Oliveira G. 96. Ktatau 87. Melro R. 31. Moura R. (G) 17. Picas 18. Pinho P. 44. Queiros J. 19. Vitoria S.
Coaches
Freire L.	Gomes J. M.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rio Ave won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Chaves could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rio Ave will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Chaves: Euller (Injury)

There are questionable in Rio Ave: Graca J. (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Rio Ave won 8 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Rio Ave won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.23	Arouca - Rio Ave	2:0 ✺
22.07.23	Rio Ave - Académico de Viseu	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
12.07.23	Moreirense - Rio Ave	0:2 ✺
08.07.23	Rio Ave - Braga B	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTWL
- Desportivo Chaves
Club Friendly
04.08.23	Chaves - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
01.08.23	Chaves - Feirense	4:2 ✺
25.07.23	Santa Clara - Chaves	2:0
Portuguese League Cup
22.07.23	AVS - Chaves	2:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.23	Penafiel - Chaves	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
26.02.23	Rio Ave - Chaves	1:0
05.09.22	Chaves - Rio Ave	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
15.05.22	Rio Ave - Chaves	3:0
10.02.22	Chaves - Rio Ave	2:1
Club Friendly
24.07.19	Chaves - Rio Ave	1:0
Liga Portugal
08.03.19	Chaves - Rio Ave	1:1
27.10.18	Rio Ave - Chaves	1:0

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