Match Info

BRAZIL: CAPIXABA - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 17 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Kléber Andrade (Cariacica)


	Rio Branco AC ES		Nova Venécia

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	3.9
	1.82	3.79	3.55
	1.83	3.79	3.55
	1.77	3.4	4.22
	1.76	3.6	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.61)	3.6 ↑ (3.55)	3.83 ↓ (4.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Branco AC ES
51%

Draw
25.3%

Nova Venécia
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

25.4%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

24.5%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Branco AC ES has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Branco AC ES's form might have worsened.

Nova Venécia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nova Venécia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Branco AC ES than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Branco AC ES, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nova Venécia than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nova Venécia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Neguete (G) 19. Aloisio 2. Augusto Potiguar 4. Gabriel Araujo 3. Gustavo Carbonieri (C) 6. Joao Paulo 15. Jonata 9. Kieza 17. Maranhao 11. Matheus Costa 8. Wagner Manaus	1. Wagner (G) 2. Adson Oliveira 10. Celsinho 9. Diego Fernandes 14. Eduardo Barreto 7. Erlon 6. Geisandro 5. Joao Vitor 17. Martins A. 3. Matheus Castelo 4. Yann Motta
Substitutes
16. Bruno Cosendey 23. Bruno Moura 10. Carlos Vitor 14. Cunha da Silva D. 20. Edinho 5. Felipe Ferraz 7. Ferrugem 22. Igor 1. Joao Pedro (G) 18. Leandro 21. Lucas Menino (G) 13. Mariano	13. Felipe Almeida 12. Flavio (G) 8. Gabriel Gomes 16. Gledson 15. Leandrinho 21. Lorran 11. Matheus Cazares 19. Rander 22. Rhamon Mexicano 18. Sandrinho 20. Tico

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Joao Vitor ⚽,
42', Geisandro 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Geisandro ↓, Tico ↑,
46', Kieza ↓, Edinho ↑,
46', Wagner Manaus ↓, Ferrugem ↑,
46', Gabriel Araujo 🟨,
61', Aloisio ↓, Carlos Vitor ↑,
67', Jonata ↓, Mariano ↑,
69', Celsinho ↓, Lorran ↑,
69', Martins A. ↓, Matheus Cazares ↑,
78', Augusto Potiguar ↓, Bruno Moura ↑,
80', Erlon ↓, Gledson ↑,
90+7', Carlos Vitor ⚽,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rio Branco AC ES won 3.

Recent matches Rio Branco AC ES is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nova Venécia has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nova Venécia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Rio Branco AC ES have a series of guest games.

In this match Rio Branco AC ES is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Rio Branco AC ES won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Rio Branco AC ES won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Branco AC ES
Brazilian Copa Verde
12.03.24	Vila Nova - Rio Branco AC ES	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
09.03.24	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	1:2 ✺
02.03.24	Rio Branco AC ES - Noroeste	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
28.02.24	Noroeste - Rio Branco AC ES	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
25.02.24	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWLWW
- Nova Venécia FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
09.03.24	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	1:2 ✺
02.03.24	Jaguare - Nova Venécia	2:0 ✺
25.02.24	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.02.24	Nova Venécia - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
17.02.24	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Nova Venécia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
09.03.24	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	1:2
25.02.24	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	0:2
25.03.23	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	3:0
18.03.23	Rio Branco AC ES - Nova Venécia	2:2
11.02.23	Rio Branco AC ES - Nova Venécia	2:1
26.03.22	Nova Venécia - Rio Branco AC ES	1:0

Rio Branco AC ES - Nova Venécia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide