Match Info

Date: 20 November 2020, Friday


	River Plate Montevideo		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.3	1.95	Watch
	4.25	3.25	1.8
	4.1	3.05	1.9
	3.8	3.15	1.95
	4.25	3.28	2.02
	4.75	3.3	1.78
	3.8	3.4	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↓ (5.52)	3.25 ↓ (3.53)	1.91 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
22.4%

Draw
28.7%

Cerro Porteño
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

26.3%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

15.4%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate Montevideo's performance.

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerro Porteño might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerro Porteño, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36%	4%	60%

River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 9 - 36%). Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 15 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerro Porteño: 40.8% – 79.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 8).

Recent matches River Plate is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cerro Porteño is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cerro Porteño could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cerro Porteño is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches River Plate won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 10-32.

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Paraguayan Primera Division
15.11.20	Sol de América - River Plate Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
14.11.20	Godoy Cruz - River Plate Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.11.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	0:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
10.11.20	River Plate Montevideo - Guaireña	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.11.20	Boston River - River Plate Montevideo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLLW
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
07.11.20	Guaireña - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
31.10.20	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
26.10.20	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
18.10.20	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0 ✺
02.10.20	San Lorenzo - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
26.09.20	Cerro Porteño - River Plate Montevideo	3:1
25.07.20	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Porteño	0:2
27.11.19	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Porteño	1:2
02.09.19	Cerro Porteño - River Plate Montevideo	2:0
Copa Libertadores
29.08.19	Cerro Porteño - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
22.08.19	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Porteño	2:0
Paraguayan Primera Division
13.04.19	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Porteño	1:5

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