Match Info

National League - Round 3

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rochdale		Gateshead

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	4.2
	1.53	3.9	4.75
	1.65	3.9	4.55
	1.61	4.1	5.22
	1.20	6.05	13.55	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5.5
	1.65	3.9	4.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.8)	4.22 ↑ (3.76)	6.05 ↑ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
61.5%

Draw
22.7%

Gateshead
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

24.5%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

23.5%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rochdale's performance.

Gateshead has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gateshead might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rochdale that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gateshead could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	20%	13.3%

Rochdale - Gateshead Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Gateshead will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rochdale: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rochdale (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whatmuff O. (G) 14. Adebayo-Rowling T. 18. Barlow A. 33. Beckwith S. 9. Dieseruvwe E. 4. East R. 6. Ebanks-Landell E. (C) 8. Gilmour H. 2. Gordon K. 17. Pritchard J. 10. Rodney D.	33. Shelvey G. (G) 7. Adom K. 32. Chapman H. 3. Ferguson D. 18. Grayson J. 17. Home J. 20. John F. 14. Nouble F. 26. Pani C. 5. Richardson K. 9. Telford D.
Substitutes
7. Allarakhia T. 12. Amantchi L. 40. Henderson I. 11. Mancini A. 21. McBride C. 22. Moss D. 16. Pettit C. 3. Tutonda D.	35. Bone C. 1. Brooks T. (G) 23. Fitzhugh E. 6. Flint W. 21. Hurst K. 34. Melbourne M. 8. Sheaf M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Ebanks-Landell E. ⚽, Dieseruvwe E. (A),
43', 2 - 0, Dieseruvwe E. ⚽, Rodney D. (A),
45+1', Chapman H. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', Chapman H. ↓, Hurst K. ↑,
59', Ferguson D. ↓, Melbourne M. ↑,
63', Pritchard J. ↓, Allarakhia T. ↑,
67', Nouble F. ↓, Sheaf M. ↑,
69', Adom K. 🟨,
70', 3 - 0, Rodney D. ⚽,
71', Beckwith S. ↓, Tutonda D. ↑,
71', Rodney D. ↓, McBride C. ↑,
74', Telford D. ↓, Fitzhugh E. ↑,
75', John F. ↓, Flint W. ↑,
79', 4 - 0, McBride C. ⚽, Gilmour H. (A),
80', Adebayo-Rowling T. ↓, Moss D. ↑,
80', Dieseruvwe E. ↓, Amantchi L. ↑,
82', Richardson K. 🟨,
90+4', Gordon K. 🟨,
90+4', Sheaf M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rochdale won 2.

Rochdale is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gateshead's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Rochdale is a strong favorite.

We predict that Rochdale will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Rochdale won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Rochdale won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Rochdale - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.33%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English National League
16.08.25	Rochdale - Altrincham	2:1 ✺
English National League Cup
13.08.25	Rochdale - Burnley U21	2:1 ✺
English National League
09.08.25	Boreham Wood - Rochdale	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Barrow - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
23.07.25	Chorley - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWLW
- Gateshead
English National League
16.08.25	Eastleigh - Gateshead	0:2 ✺
English National League Cup
13.08.25	Gateshead - Newcastle United U21	3:4 ✺
English National League
09.08.25	Gateshead - Southend United	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.25	Spennymoor Town - Gateshead	1:3 ✺
12.07.25	Gateshead - Sunderland	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
04.03.25	Rochdale - Gateshead	1:0
26.11.24	Gateshead - Rochdale	0:1
29.03.24	Gateshead - Rochdale	1:0
English FA Trophy
12.12.23	Rochdale - Gateshead	1:5
English National League
24.10.23	Rochdale - Gateshead	2:2
English FA Cup
10.11.18	Rochdale - Gateshead	2:1

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