Match Info

National League - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Gateshead International Stadium (Gateshead)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Gateshead		Southend United

	1	X	2
	5.00	4.20	1.53
	4.75	4.00	1.53
	4.90	4.00	1.57
	5.82	4.38	1.54
	5.14	4.25	1.56	Watch
	5.50	4.30	1.52
	5.10	4.28	1.57
	5.20	4.20	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.18 ↑ (4.05)	4.2 ↑ (3.78)	1.55 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gateshead
17.9%

Draw
22.1%

Southend United
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

24.2%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

23.5%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gateshead has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Southend United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Southend United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southend United than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Southend United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gateshead - Southend United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Phillips N. (G) 24. Ferguson K. 28. Holgate H. 5. Lankshear A. (C) 6. Robinson J. 21. Spellman M. 4. Home J. 20. Fenton J. 29. Issaka F. 14. Boatswain A. 7. Hiwula J.	1. Duncan J. (G) 2. Daley-Campbell V. 6. Goodliffe B. 20. Cox D. 3. McAdam K. 8. Oldaker D. 17. Massiah-Edwards Z. 10. Austin S. 19. Chambers-Parillon L. 28. Coker O. (C) 9. Cardwell H.
Substitutes
17. Coyle R. 27. Eguaibor D. 12. Jameson P. (G) 2. Lavery T. 38. Lewis-Burgess K. 22. Smith M. 19. Supyk L.	24. Battrum R. 27. Colclough R. 4. Hartigan A. 14. Omochere P. 5. Oyebade R. 23. Popoola J. 13. Sims J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 6)
6', 0 - 1, Cardwell H. ⚽, Massiah-Edwards Z. (A),
8', 0 - 2, McAdam K. ⚽, Massiah-Edwards Z. (A),
19', 0 - 3, Austin S. ⚽, Daley-Campbell V. (A),
26', Coker O. 🟨,
40', 0 - 4, Cardwell H. ⚽,
42', 0 - 5, Austin S. ⚽,
45+2', 0 - 6, Austin S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Daley-Campbell V. ↓, Battrum R. ↑,
46', Issaka F. ↓, Supyk L. ↑,
46', Hiwula J. ↓, Lewis-Burgess K. ↑,
59', Chambers-Parillon L. ↓, Colclough R. ↑,
61', Cardwell H. ↓, Omochere P. ↑,
61', McAdam K. ↓, Oyebade R. ↑,
69', Boatswain A. ↓, Eguaibor D. ↑,
69', Massiah-Edwards Z. ↓, Popoola J. ↑,
81', Spellman M. ↓, Coyle R. ↑,
82', Coyle R. 🟨,
89', 1 - 6, Eguaibor D. ⚽,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 23rd in the Relegation and 3rd in the Promotion ~ National League PlayoffsSemi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gateshead won 2.

Gateshead has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Southend have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Southend could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Southend is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Gateshead has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:8 (averaging 1.1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gateshead against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:5 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	31:19	12	27
24	Gateshead	13	1	1	11	8:31	-23	4

Last Results with these Odds

Southend United - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.21%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gateshead
English National League North
16.09.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Gateshead	1:0 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Forest Green Rovers - Gateshead	4:0 ✺
English National League Cup
08.09.26	Gateshead - Derby County U21	1:3 ✺
English National League
05.09.26	Gateshead - Solihull Moors	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Harrogate Town - Gateshead	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL
- Southend United
English National League North
15.09.26	Southend United - Tamworth	3:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Southend United - Yeovil Town	3:2 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Woking - Southend United	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Southend United - Kidderminster Harriers	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
10.03.26	Southend United - Gateshead	1:1
09.08.25	Gateshead - Southend United	0:3
05.05.25	Gateshead - Southend United	0:0
28.09.24	Southend United - Gateshead	1:3
03.02.24	Southend United - Gateshead	0:1
25.11.23	Gateshead - Southend United	1:1
18.02.23	Southend United - Gateshead	1:0

Gateshead - Southend United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide