Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: La Arboleda (Asunción)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports, Tigo Sports+


	Rubio Ñu		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	4	3	1.9	Watch
	4.1	3.2	1.77
	3.95	3.15	1.92	Watch
	4.52	3.2	1.96
	3.96	3.11	2.04	Watch
	3.9	3	1.95
	4.31	3.1	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.11 ↓ (4.61)	3.11 ↓ (3.37)	1.93 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rubio Ñu
22.5%

Draw
29.7%

Cerro Porteño
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

27.6%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

27%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rubio Ñu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rubio Ñu than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerro Porteño could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Rubio Ñu - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerro Porteño (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Cerro Porteño will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Fragueda F. (G) 2. Ferreira R. 24. Gomez L. 3. Vallejos J. 33. Alborno R. 8. Rojas R. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 20. Martinez F. 28. Leguizamon A. 10. Mendieta W. (C) 32. Palacios J.	25. Fernandez R. (G) 2. Dominguez F. 23. Velazquez G. (C) 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 35. Chaparro M. 20. Viera W. 29. Mosquera H. 30. Gimenez G. 32. Bobadilla C. 40. Klimowicz M. 19. Vegetti P.
Substitutes
30. Ayala P. 19. Frean S. 36. Gimenez C. 11. Gimenez Delgado J. J. 27. Gomez S. 4. Gonzalez J. 38. Manzur G. 40. Perez E. 37. Roldan M. 21. Sarquis E. 22. Tales (G) 18. Villagra C.	31. Aliseda I. 9. Amarilla L. 13. Benitez A. G. 38. Cristaldo A. 10. Dominguez C. 28. Franco C. 1. Martin A. (G) 18. Melgarejo R. 5. Morel J. 16. Peralta F. 39. Servin L. J. 27. Torres J.
Coaches
Morinigo G.	Bava J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Bobadilla C. ↓, Dominguez C. ↑,
46', Klimowicz M. ↓, Aliseda I. ↑,
46', Palacios J. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
46', Leguizamon A. ↓, Gimenez Delgado J. J. ↑,
46', Rojas R. ↓, Gimenez C. ↑,
56', Dominguez F. 🟨,
58', 1 - 0, Mendieta W. (Penalty Awarded),
61', Mosquera H. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
64', Ferreira R. 🟨,
72', Gimenez G. ↓, Morel J. ↑,
73', Viera W. ↓, Amarilla L. ↑,
74', Mendieta W. 🟨,
74', Mendieta W. ↓, Manzur G. ↑,
79', Amarilla L. 🟨,
84', Martinez F. 🟨,
86', 2 - 0, Perez E. ⚽,
89', Gimenez C. ↓, Roldan M. ↑,
90+3', Gimenez C. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', Ferreira R. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rubio Ñu won 1.

Rubio Ñu has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cerro Porteño is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Rubio Ñu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cerro Porteño is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rubio Ñu won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 18:38. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Rubio Ñu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:23. (average 0.7:2.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Cerro Porteno	13	5	2	6	15:14	1	17
10	Rubio Nu	13	3	3	7	15:24	-9	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rubio Ñu
Paraguayan Primera Division
15.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Rubio Ñu - 2 de Mayo	0:1 ✺
02.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
26.02.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 LLWWW
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
14.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Paraguay
03.08.22	Rubio Ñu - Cerro Porteño	1:0
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.11.17	Rubio Ñu - Cerro Porteño	0:3
08.09.17	Cerro Porteño - Rubio Ñu	1:0
15.04.17	Cerro Porteño - Rubio Ñu	4:0
05.02.17	Rubio Ñu - Cerro Porteño	0:3
19.11.16	Cerro Porteño - Rubio Ñu	1:0
13.08.16	Rubio Ñu - Cerro Porteño	0:4

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