The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cerro Porteño 81.2%
Draw 13.6%
Deportivo Recoleta 5.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
64.4%
21%
14.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
68.6%
22.4%
13.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerro Porteño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cerro Porteño's performance.
Deportivo Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Recoleta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-12.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cerro Porteño that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Recoleta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH -2 - Cerro Porteño (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Cerro Porteño will win
(7 of 7 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerro Porteño (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Martin A. (G) 2. Dominguez F. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 22. Perez M. 35. Chaparro M. 28. Franco C. 29. Mosquera H. 26. Piris R. 8. Paredes C. 11. Iturbe J. (C) 19. Vegetti P.
13. Toledo O. (G) 14. Figueredo C. 3. Cardozo L. 23. Nunez J. (C) 35. Garcia E. 7. Dominguez R. 27. Dominguez Castillo J. C. 8. Galeano F. 19. Lopez H. 9. Ortiz R. 31. Schupp M.
Substitutes
31. Aliseda I. 13. Benitez A. G. 38. Cristaldo A. 10. Dominguez C. 25. Fernandez R. (G) 40. Klimowicz M. 6. Luciatti A. 18. Melgarejo R. 16. Peralta F. 39. Servin L. J. 7. Sonora A. 27. Torres J.
20. Canete M. 36. Ferreira B. 21. Garay C. 1. Marsengo A. (G) 34. Masi M. 15. Medina B. 38. Orue D. 22. Pacher F. 4. Pereira M. 26. Piris I. 16. Vera C. 24. Vidal T.
Coaches
Bava J.
Gonzalez J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Iturbe J. 🟨,
42', Paredes C. ↓, Peralta F. ↑,
45+1', Chaparro M. 🟨,
45+5', Nunez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Vegetti P. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
46', Franco C. ↓, Dominguez C. ↑,
56', Dominguez F. 🟨,
57', Mosquera H. ↓, Aliseda I. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Iturbe J. ⚽, Chaparro M. (A),
63', Ortiz R. ↓, Vidal T. ↑,
63', Dominguez R. ↓, Garay C. ↑,
72', Dominguez Castillo J. C. ↓, Ferreira B. ↑,
74', Dominguez C. 🟨,
80', Galeano F. ↓, Canete M. ↑,
80', Figueredo C. ↓, Piris I. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Perez M. ⚽,
87', Martin A. 🟨,
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 3).
Recent performances by Cerro Porteño have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Recoleta is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Cerro Porteño may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Cerro Porteño is the undisputed favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 2.6:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Porteño won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).
Argentina
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Martin A. (G) 
Dominguez F. 
Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 
Mosquera H. 
Klimowicz M. 
Sonora A. 
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