Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Final

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Martins Pereira (Sao Jose dos Campos) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	18:00	Xsports


	São José-SP		União São João

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.30	5.00
	1.68	3.20	4.70
	1.66	3.19	5.35
	1.69	3.22	5.3
	1.64	3.05	5.20
	1.73	3.35	5.23	Watch
	1.69	3.30	4.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.81)	3.23 ↑ (3.2)	5.1 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São José-SP
54%

Draw
28.1%

União São João
17.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.7%

28.7%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

27.7%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São José-SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

União São João has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União São João than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

São José SP - União São João Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Joao Lucas (G) 28. Carlos Henrique 17. Fernando Neto 34. Guilherme Santos 11. Jeffinho 4. Joao Ramos 8. Mauricio 27. Natan Masiero 9. Neto Oliveira 7. Thomaz 3. Wesley Rodrigues (C)	1. Joao Souto (G) 11. Alex Oliveira 3. Felipe Torres 4. Fernando Brito 2. Leo Machado 13. Leo Souza 7. Maikinho 8. Maycon Lucas 10. Rafael Costa (C) 5. Ruan Marcos 6. Tallys
Substitutes
6. Capuriche I. 25. Euller 14. Gabriel Lima 32. Guilherme (G) 16. Guilherme Martineli 5. Jeferson Lima 19. Joao Guilherme 20. Lucas Andre 33. Micael 1. Rafael Puridade (G) 18. Tche Tche 10. Vitinho	9. Bruninho 17. Bruno Miguel 16. Bruno Re 18. Eliel 12. Leo Steffen (G) 19. Matheus Castilho 21. Menezes B. 22. Ronaldo 14. Sabia E. 15. Vitao 20. Wagner Gomes 23. Warlei

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Alex Oliveira 🟨,
44', Wesley Rodrigues 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Guilherme Santos ↓, Micael ↑,
51', Thomaz 🟨,
56', Rafael Costa ↓, Wagner Gomes ↑,
65', Mauricio ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
65', Fernando Neto ↓, Jeferson Lima ↑,
71', Leo Souza ↓, Menezes B. ↑,
86', Maikinho ↓, Warlei ↑,
89', Guilherme 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+6', Alex Oliveira 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Maycon Lucas (Penalty Awarded),
1, Jeffinho (Penalty Awarded),
2, Menezes B. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Joao Guilherme (Penalty Awarded),
3, Wagner Gomes (Penalty Awarded),
3, Natan Masiero (Penalty Awarded),
4, Warlei (Penalty Awarded),
4, Gabriel Lima (Penalty Awarded),
5, Leo Machado (Penalty Awarded),
5, Thomaz (Penalty Awarded),
6, Ruan Marcos (Penalty Awarded),
6, Tche Tche (Penalty Awarded),
7, Tallys (Penalty Awarded),
7, Micael (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

In this matchup, São José-SP is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, São José-SP has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

São José-SP - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 50.7%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São José-SP
Brazilian Copa Paulista
11.10.26	União São João - São José-SP	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	São José-SP - EC Noroeste	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	EC Noroeste - São José-SP	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	São José-SP - Comercial SP	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Comercial SP - São José-SP	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWTWT
- União São João de Araras
Brazilian Copa Paulista
11.10.26	União São João - São José-SP	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	União São João - Grêmio Prudente	2:1 ✺
26.09.26	Grêmio Prudente - União São João	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	CA Juventus - União São João	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	União São João - CA Juventus	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
11.10.26	União São João - São José-SP	1:1

São José-SP - União São João