Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 16

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio João Paulo II (Angra do Heroísmo)


	SC Lusitânia		Mortágua

	1	X	2
	3.9	2.98	1.95
	4.12	3.03	1.87
	3.89	2.99	1.99	Watch
	3.9	2.8	1.95
	4.2	3	1.89
	4	3.1	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.17)	2.98 ↓ (3)	1.92 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SC Lusitânia
22.6%

Draw
30.3%

Mortágua
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

30.3%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

29%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SC Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that SC Lusitânia's form might have worsened.

Mortágua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mortágua's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SC Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

SC Lusitânia - Mortágua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 5).

SC Lusitânia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mortágua's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mortágua will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, SC Lusitânia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, SC Lusitânia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Mortagua	4	3	1	0	9:4	5	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Lusitânia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
18.01.26	Fatima - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	SC Lusitânia - Samora Correia	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	SC Lusitânia - Peniche	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Oliveira Hospital - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	SC Lusitânia - Marinhense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLTLT
- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.01.26	Mortágua - União da Serra	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	SB Castelo Branco - Mortágua	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Eléctrico - Mortágua	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Mortágua - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Os Marialvas - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
12.10.25	Mortágua - SC Lusitânia	0:2
24.03.24	SC Lusitânia - Mortágua	2:3
10.12.23	Mortágua - SC Lusitânia	1:2

SC Lusitânia - Mortágua: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide