Match Info

NPL NSW - Round 23

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Ernie Smith Reserve (Sydney)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	NPL NNSWF


	SD Raiders		Blacktown City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.60	3.40	2.40
	2.35	3.30	2.50
	2.63	3.65	2.48
	2.97	3.74	2.12	Watch
	2.60	3.55	2.35
	2.54	3.38	2.36	Watch
	2.65	3.30	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.35)	3.47 ↑ (3.3)	2.37 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Raiders
35%

Draw
26.4%

Blacktown City
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

26.9%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

25.4%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Raiders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Blacktown City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Raiders than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Blacktown City than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

SD Raiders - Blacktown City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, ⚽,
38', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 1 - 2, ⚽,
77', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 14).

In recent matches, Raiders has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Blacktown City is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Raiders may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Raiders won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Raiders
Australian NPL NSW
04.07.26	Manly United - SD Raiders	1:0 ✺
30.06.26	SD Raiders - Sydney FC U23	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	SD Raiders - St. George City	3:1 ✺
21.06.26	Sydney United - SD Raiders	1:0 ✺
14.06.26	Rockdale Ilinden - SD Raiders	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLWLW
- Blacktown City FC
Australian NPL NSW
05.07.26	Blacktown City - Sydney United	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Marconi Stallions - Blacktown City	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	Blacktown City - APIA Leichhardt Tigers	1:3 ✺
13.06.26	Sutherland Sharks - Blacktown City	1:2 ✺
07.06.26	Blacktown City - Rockdale Ilinden	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL NSW
29.03.26	Blacktown City - SD Raiders	1:2
Club Friendly
22.01.22	Blacktown City - SD Raiders	4:0

SD Raiders - Blacktown City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide