Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group B - Round 5

Date: 23 September 2024, Monday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Arena


	SPAL		Carpi

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.4	4.33
	1.72	3.6	4.5
	1.74	3.6	4.75
	1.72	3.6	4.88
	1.67	3.5	4.4
	1.67	3.56	4.61	Watch
	1.72	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.08)	3.55 ↑ (3.26)	4.57 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
54%

Draw
25.9%

Carpi
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

28%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

28.6%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in SPAL's performance.

Carpi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carpi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with SPAL that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carpi than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carpi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

SPAL - Carpi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Melgrati R. (G) 3. Bruscagin M. 23. Arena M. 16. Sottini E. 19. Mignanelli D. 20. Zammarini R. 10. Radrezza I. 8. El Kaddouri O. 11. Rao E. 7. Antenucci M. 33. D'Orazio L.	1. Sorzi M. (G) 16. Tcheuna R. 6. Zagnoni D. 19. Rossini M. 2. Verza N. 21. Forapani M. 11. Amayah P. 30. Contiliano N. 72. Cortesi M. 10. Saporetti S. 23. Sall A.
Substitutes
5. Awua T. 21. Bachini M. 26. Bassoli A. 77. Bidaoui S. 80. Buchel M. 30. Camelio U. 12. Galeotti C. (G) 90. Kane L. 9. Karlsson O. 22. Meneghetti M. (G) 29. Nador S. 18. Ntenda J. 13. Polito V.	5. Calanca A. 3. Cecotti T. 90. Figoli M. 27. Gerbi E. 12. Lorenzi C. (G) 4. Mandelli A. . Mazzali S. 8. Nardi N. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 20. Puletto F. 17. Sereni M. 7. Stanzani L. 15. Zoboletti A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Antenucci M. ⚽,
44', 2 - 0, Rao E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Amayah P. ↓, Puletto F. ↑,
57', Verza N. 🟨,
57', Verza N. ↓, Mazzali S. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Cortesi M. ⚽,
62', Antenucci M. ↓, Karlsson O. ↑,
62', El Kaddouri O. ↓, Awua T. ↑,
62', Rao E. ↓, Bidaoui S. ↑,
65', Sall A. ↓, Gerbi E. ↑,
65', Saporetti S. ↓, Stanzani L. ↑,
72', Radrezza I. ↓, Buchel M. ↑,
81', 🟨,
82', Bruscagin M. ↓, Polito V. ↑,
83', Forapani M. ↓, Sereni M. ↑,
90+5', Karlsson O. 🟨,

Preview

SPAL is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Carpi is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match SPAL is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches SPAL won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-5.

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie C Group B
14.09.24	Sestri Levante - SPAL	1:3 ✺
08.09.24	SPAL - Lucchese	2:3 ✺
30.08.24	Perugia - SPAL	3:0 ✺
23.08.24	SPAL - Ascoli	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
10.08.24	Atalanta U23 - SPAL	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLTL
- Carpi FC
Italian Serie C Group B
13.09.24	Virtus Entella - Carpi	1:1 ✺
08.09.24	Carpi - Perugia	2:0 ✺
01.09.24	Milan Futuro - Carpi	1:1 ✺
26.08.24	Carpi - Rimini	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
11.08.24	FeralpiSalò - Carpi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
18.03.17	Carpi - SPAL	1:4
22.10.16	SPAL - Carpi	3:1
Club Friendly
10.08.16	SPAL - Carpi	1:3

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