Match Info

3. Liga - Round 5

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Ludwigspark Stadion (Saarbrücken)

Referee: Nather M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 12
Germany	Magenta Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Saarbrücken		Ingolstadt

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3	Watch
	2.10	3.60	3.10
	2.1	3.55	2.95	Watch
	2.19	4.03	3.15
	2.09	3.85	3.02	Watch
	2.03	3.95	3
	2.02	3.74	2.97	Watch
	2.13	3.65	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.48)	3.72 ↓ (3.79)	3.02 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saarbrücken
44.5%

Draw
24.9%

Ingolstadt
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

24.5%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

23.8%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saarbrücken has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Saarbrücken's performance.

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ingolstadt might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saarbrücken than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Saarbrücken that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ingolstadt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Saarbrücken - Ingolstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Saarbrücken will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bignetti M. (G) 42. Fahrner P. 21. Cvjetinovic M. 4. Voet S. 28. Bretschneider N. 5. Gleiber D. 6. Sontheimer P. 20. Pick F. 31. Owusu K. 10. Kuhlwetter C. 29. Staff A.	47. Klein D. (G) 6. Antzoulas G. 34. Frode L. 15. Scholz J. 14. Plath M. 41. Sapina V. 18. Bennetts K. 5. Gul E. 28. Velupillay N. 8. Carlsen F. 13. Lokotsch L.
Substitutes
3. Bauerle A. 33. Broll K. (G) 9. Brunker K. 22. Caliskaner K. 15. Kamara A. 16. Lee Seung-Joon 11. Multhaup M. 7. Rizzuto C. 14. Shuaib Z.	27. Bagaric T. 20. Deichmann Y. 30. Drakulic O. 11. Durakov S. 16. Ganda J. 23. Maljojoki J. 1. Ponath M. (G) 19. Rosenlocher L. 7. Seo Jong-min
Coaches
Giannikis A.	Wittmann S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Bennetts K. 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Lokotsch L. ⚽,
39', Velupillay N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Kuhlwetter C. ↓, Brunker K. ↑,
56', Owusu K. ↓, Multhaup M. ↑,
61', Bennetts K. ↓, Rosenlocher L. ↑,
61', Plath M. ↓, Deichmann Y. ↑,
62', Frode L. 🟨,
68', Gul E. ↓, Ganda J. ↑,
71', Fahrner P. ↓, Rizzuto C. ↑,
71', Staff A. ↓, Lee Seung-Joon ↑,
72', Deichmann Y. 🟨,
85', Bretschneider N. ↓, Bauerle A. ↑,
86', Lokotsch L. ↓, Durakov S. ↑,
90+1', Gleiber D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ingolstadt may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Saarbrücken won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.8:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Saarbrucken	8	4	2	2	19:12	7	14
15	Ingolstadt	7	2	2	3	7:11	-4	8

Last Results with these Odds

Saarbrücken - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.44%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Saarbrücken
German 3 Bundesliga
05.09.26	Meppen - Saarbrücken	1:6 ✺
30.08.26	Saarbrücken - Hansa Rostock	2:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Saarbrücken - Hertha Berlin	1:2 penalties ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
16.08.26	Jahn Regensburg - Saarbrücken	0:1 ✺
09.08.26	Saarbrücken - Rot-Weiß Essen	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWW
- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
04.09.26	Ingolstadt - Alemannia Aachen	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Sonnenhof Großaspach - Ingolstadt	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	Preußen Münster - Ingolstadt	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Ingolstadt - Würzburger Kickers	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Heidenheim - Ingolstadt	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
05.04.26	Saarbrücken - Ingolstadt	1:0
25.10.25	Ingolstadt - Saarbrücken	2:1
01.02.25	Ingolstadt - Saarbrücken	1:0
24.08.24	Saarbrücken - Ingolstadt	2:3
27.01.24	Saarbrücken - Ingolstadt	0:2
26.08.23	Ingolstadt - Saarbrücken	2:2
18.02.23	Saarbrücken - Ingolstadt	3:4

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