Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Bank Respublika Arena (Masazır)

Referee: Mammadov I. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Sabah		Gabala

	1	X	2
	1.29	4.55	8.8
	1.35	4.6	9.45
	1.38	4.16	8.27	Watch
	1.36	4	8
	1.4	4.5	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.44)	4.36 ↑ (3.88)	8.4 ↑ (6.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabah
67.9%

Draw
21.1%

Gabala
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

23.5%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

21.7%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Sabah - Gabala Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Sabah will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Gabala will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabah: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gabala (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
92. Pokatilov S. (C) 10. Isayev A. 13. Lepinjica I. 19. Malouda A. 20. Mickels J. 11. Parris K. 27. Puchacz T. 7. Rakhmonaliyev U. 3. Solvet S. 40. Ygor Nogueira 80. Zedadka A.	93. Cafarov R. (G) 24. Akinade I. 13. Aliyev N. 16. Amoah I. 50. Ba Loua A. 3. Eduardo Kunde 7. Manafov T. 28. Musayev M. (C) 30. Owusu P. 6. Sierra J. 8. Sissoko S.
Substitutes
9. Aliyev K. 53. Andrey 5. Dashdamirov R. 83. Ende S. 6. Khaybulaev A. 55. Mehbaliyev N. (G) 94. Mirzammadov R. (G) 89. Mukhtarov C. 17. Mutallimov T. 22. Ould Khaled Z. 70. Sekidika J. 2. Seydiyev A.	1. Agayev S. (G) 27. Ahmadov E. 74. Damadayev S. 94. Hushanov H. (G) 22. Iskandarov F. 11. Mammadov A. 14. Massoumou D. J. 66. Rashidov N. 12. Sangare I. 10. Shahniyarov S. 21. Shakarkhanov Z.
Coaches
Dambrauskas V.	Tskhadadze K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Mickels J. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Isayev A. ⚽,
25', Manafov T. ↓, Ahmadov E. ↑,
32', 3 - 0, Mickels J. ⚽,
40', 4 - 0, Parris K. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Sierra J. ↓, Massoumou D. J. ↑,
50', Mickels J. ↓, Sekidika J. ↑,
53', 5 - 0, Malouda A. ⚽,
59', Sissoko S. ↓, Shahniyarov S. ↑,
59', Aliyev N. ↓, Rashidov N. ↑,
63', 6 - 0, Sekidika J. ⚽,
67', Solvet S. ↓, Dashdamirov R. ↑,
67', Rakhmonaliyev U. ↓, Khaybulaev A. ↑,
67', Lepinjica I. ↓, Ould Khaled Z. ↑,
76', Akinade I. ↓, Iskandarov F. ↑,
77', 7 - 0, Dashdamirov R. ⚽,
84', Malouda A. ↓, Andrey ↑,
87', 7 - 1, Ba Loua A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabah won 3.

Sabah is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gabala's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sabah may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Gabala has had a series of home games.

In this match, Sabah is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Sabah will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sabah won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 37:18. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sabah won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 20:6. (average 2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sabah Baku	5	5	0	0	14:1	13	15
8	Gabala	6	1	1	4	2:7	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabah Baku FK
Azerbaijan Cup
05.03.26	Gabala - Sabah	3:4 penalties ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
01.03.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Sabah	3:3 ✺
22.02.26	Sabah - Kapaz	1:0 ✺
16.02.26	Gabala - Sabah	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Sabah - Araz Naxçıvan	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWWW
- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Cup
05.03.26	Gabala - Sabah	3:4 penalties ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.02.26	Gabala - Karvan	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Gabala - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
20.02.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Gabala - Sabah	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Cup
05.03.26	Gabala - Sabah	3:4 penalties
Azerbaijan Premier League
16.02.26	Gabala - Sabah	0:1
Azerbaijan Cup
04.02.26	Sabah - Gabala	0:0
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.11.25	Sabah - Gabala	1:0
12.05.24	Gabala - Sabah	2:0
09.03.24	Sabah - Gabala	2:1
22.12.23	Gabala - Sabah	1:0

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