Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 22 December 2025, Monday

Location: Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium (Sumqayit)

Referee: Qurbanov T. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Sumgayit		Sabah

	1	X	2
	3.25	3	2.12	Watch
	4.62	3.3	1.81
	4.18	3.64	1.76	Watch
	3.75	3.3	1.85
	3.48	3	2.08	Watch
	3.75	3.4	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↓ (4.47)	3.27 ↓ (3.34)	1.91 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sumgayit
23.9%

Draw
28%

Sabah
48.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

27.5%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

27.4%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sumgayit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Sabah has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sabah than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	30.8%	69.2%

Sumgayit - Sabah Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Sabah will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabah: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabah (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 1st Half - Sabah (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabah (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Farzullayev K. (G) 8. Abdullazada S. (C) 7. Ahmadzada R. 3. Haqverdi H. 80. Keffel 71. Murata M. 75. Orujov N. 14. Pinto P. 9. Ramalingom A. 95. Simon N. 23. Vasquez R.	92. Pokatilov S. (C) 88. Aliyev K. 46. Isayev A. 13. Lepinjica I. 19. Malouda A. 27. Puchacz T. 33. Rakhmonaliyev U. 21. Simic V. 3. Solvet S. 40. Ygor Nogueira 80. Zedadka A.
Substitutes
66. Aliyev R. 56. Arixov A. (G) 1. Cannatov M. (G) 64. Feyziyev K. 11. Jankovic A. 19. Kehat R. 10. Ninkovic N. 37. Orujali N.	53. Andrey 12. Ayyubov R. (G) 5. Dashdamirov R. 6. Khaybulaev A. 89. Mukhtarov C. 17. Mutallimov T. 11. Parris K. 72. Samigullin R. (G) 70. Sekidika J. 2. Seydiyev A.
Coaches
Kaplanovic V.	Dambrauskas V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Ahmadzada R. 🟨,
12', Isayev A. ↓, Parris K. ↑,
16', Vasquez R. 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Simic V. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Murata M. ↓, Jankovic A. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Simic V. ⚽,
55', Ramalingom A. 🟨,
59', Ahmadzada R. ↓, Kehat R. ↑,
59', Simon N. ↓, Ninkovic N. ↑,
62', 0 - 3, Keffel (Own goal),
66', 1 - 3, Vasquez R. ⚽,
72', Malouda A. ↓, Sekidika J. ↑,
72', Rakhmonaliyev U. ↓, Khaybulaev A. ↑,
89', Abdullazada S. 🟨,
90+7', Ninkovic N. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 0.

Sumgayit is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sabah is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sumgayit may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sabah is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:45. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sumgayit won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:24. (average 0.8:2.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
15.12.25	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	2:2 ✺
09.12.25	Sumgayit - İmişli	1:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.25	Difai Ağsu - Sumgayit	1:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.11.25	Shamakhi - Sumgayit	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Sumgayit - Qarabağ Agdam	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TWWWL
- Sabah Baku FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.12.25	Sabah - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Turan Tovuz - Sabah	1:3 ✺
08.12.25	Sabah - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
03.12.25	İmişli - Sabah	1:2 ET ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
29.11.25	İmişli - Sabah	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
28.09.25	Sabah - Sumgayit	1:1
29.03.25	Sumgayit - Sabah	3:3
Azerbaijan Cup
27.02.25	Sumgayit - Sabah	0:4
05.02.25	Sabah - Sumgayit	0:0
Azerbaijan Premier League
25.01.25	Sabah - Sumgayit	0:0
03.11.24	Sumgayit - Sabah	1:0
25.08.24	Sabah - Sumgayit	3:1

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