Match Info

Premier League - Round 7

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium (Sumqayit) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rahimov K. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Azerbaijan	19:30	CBC Sport


	Sumgayit		Gabala

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.00	2.75
	2.35	2.95	2.80	Watch
	2.45	3.05	3.02
	2.43	3.07	2.85	Watch
	2.40	2.95	2.95
	2.47	3.12	2.91	Watch
	2.38	3.05	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.45)	3.03 ↓ (3.09)	2.88 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sumgayit
38%

Draw
30.2%

Gabala
31.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.6%

29.8%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

28.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sumgayit has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Sumgayit - Gabala Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Johansson M. (G) 42. Badolo C. 11. Bangre M. 9. Jeam 80. Keffel 55. Lucas Black 29. Mustafaev E. 5. Renan Santana 4. Suliman E. (C) 21. Tiago Almeida 10. Vasquez R.	1. Agayev S. (C) 27. Ahmadov E. 24. Akinade I. 16. Amoah I. 4. Camalov E. 22. Iskandarov F. 12. Mabea K. 5. Monzango N. 9. Rossi K. 10. Shahniyarov S. 80. Ubochioma M.
Substitutes
17. Ahmadzada N. 7. Ahmadzada R. 12. Arikhov A. (G) 27. Barker I. 22. Farzullayev K. (G) 19. Kehat R. 71. Murata M. 75. Orucov N. 97. Pashayev V. 20. Suleymali A.	13. Aliyev N. 7. Bruno Silva 8. Cekici E. 74. Damadayev S. 3. Edson Eduardo 94. Hushanov H. (G) 11. Mammadov A. 23. Raphael Utzig 66. Rashidov N. 21. Shakarkhanov Z.
Coaches
Candido F.	Bekjiri J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Bangre M. ⚽,
9', 2 - 0, Suliman E. ⚽,
13', Renan Santana 🟨,
22', Jeam ↓, Ahmadzada R. ↑,
26', 2 - 1, Shahniyarov S. ⚽,
28', Akinade I. 🟨,
29', 3 - 1, Vasquez R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Iskandarov F. ↓, Cekici E. ↑,
62', Badolo C. 🟨,
63', Lucas Black 🟨,
67', Rossi K. ↓, Raphael Utzig ↑,
67', 4 - 1, Lucas Black ⚽,
78', Vasquez R. ↓, Ahmadzada N. ↑,
78', Lucas Black ↓, Kehat R. ↑,
78', Monzango N. ↓, Edson Eduardo ↑,
78', Ubochioma M. ↓, Bruno Silva ↑,
83', Shahniyarov S. 🟨,
86', Mabea K. ↓, Rashidov N. ↑,
90', Renan Santana ↓, Suleymali A. ↑,
90', Bangre M. ↓, Orucov N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 4.

Both teams are currently going through a difficult patch of form.

Recently, Gabala has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sumgayit has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:19 (averaging 0.8:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sumgayit against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 7:10 goals (averaging 0.6:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Gabala	9	2	1	6	5:16	-11	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sumgayit FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
20.09.26	Kapaz - Sumgayit	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Sumgayit - Shamakhi	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Sumgayit - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
16.08.26	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TTLLL
- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.09.26	Gabala - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
12.09.26	Kapaz - Gabala	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Gabala - İmişli	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Gabala - Shamakhi	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Gabala - Şəfa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
19.04.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	1:0
20.02.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	0:0
07.11.25	Gabala - Sumgayit	0:2
25.05.24	Sumgayit - Gabala	1:0
23.01.24	Gabala - Sumgayit	0:1
29.10.23	Sumgayit - Gabala	0:0
19.08.23	Gabala - Sumgayit	1:2

Sumgayit - Gabala