Match Info

Turkish Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadıum (Adapazari)

Where to Watch on TV:


Turkey	A Spor


	Sakaryaspor		İnegölspor

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.7	1.8
	2.58	5.15	1.98
	1.22	6.58	9.53	Watch
	3.35	3.68	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (1.4)	4.78 ↑ (4.35)	3.83 ↓ (6.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sakaryaspor
44.4%

Draw
24.7%

İnegölspor
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

20.9%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

20.5%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sakaryaspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sakaryaspor's form might have worsened.

İnegölspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting İnegölspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sakaryaspor than the current prediction. (+21.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sakaryaspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İnegölspor than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for İnegölspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Sakaryaspor - İnegölspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sakaryaspor will win (votes: 3 - 20%). İnegölspor will win (votes: 12 - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%) for İnegölspor: 59.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - İnegölspor (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): İnegölspor will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakaryaspor (votes: 1 - 8.3%). İnegölspor (votes: 11 - 91.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Aktas O. (Own goal),
33', 2 - 0, Demir E. (Pen),
42', 3 - 0, Bayram A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
79', 4 - 0, Cihan M. ⚽,

Preview

Sakaryaspor is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

İnegölspor's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Sakaryaspor is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sakaryaspor won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sakaryaspor won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sakaryaspor
Turkish First League
25.10.25	Sakaryaspor - Keçiörengücü	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Adana Demirspor - Sakaryaspor	0:6 ✺
05.10.25	Sarıyer - Sakaryaspor	1:2 ✺
29.09.25	Sakaryaspor - Sivasspor	0:0 ✺
25.09.25	Pendikspor - Sakaryaspor	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWWTL
- İnegölspor
Turkish Second League White Group
25.10.25	İnegölspor - Kepez Belediyesi	3:0 ✺
19.10.25	Bucaspor 1928 - İnegölspor	3:3 ✺
12.10.25	İnegölspor - Beykoz Anadolu	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Ankaraspor - İnegölspor	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	İnegölspor - Muğlaspor	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Second League Red Group
27.02.22	Sakaryaspor - İnegölspor	2:2
23.10.21	İnegölspor - Sakaryaspor	0:5
Turkish Second League White Group
03.04.19	Sakaryaspor - İnegölspor	3:1
11.11.18	İnegölspor - Sakaryaspor	0:1

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