Match Info

National League South - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Farnham Town		Salisbury

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.50	2.10
	2.65	3.45	2.23
	2.96	3.99	2.21
	2.73	3.75	2.29	Watch
	2.90	3.95	2.08
	2.98	3.63	2.18
	2.90	3.55	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.37)	3.69 ↑ (3.57)	2.17 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farnham Town
32.5%

Draw
25%

Salisbury
42.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.4%

25.5%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

25.3%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farnham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Farnham Town's form might have worsened.

Salisbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Salisbury's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farnham Town than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Farnham Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salisbury than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Salisbury, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Farnham Town - Salisbury Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Bingham R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', 1 - 1, Hedges J. ⚽,
63', 1 - 2, Odokonyero N. ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 7th in the Promotion - National League South Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 3rd in the Promotion - National League South Playoffs - Semi - finals).

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Salisbury	13	7	4	2	23:9	14	25
6	Farnham	13	7	2	4	27:18	9	23

Outrights of English National League South for now

Salisbury: 5.75% Farnham: 4.4%

Last Results with these Odds

Salisbury - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.05%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Farnham Town
English National League South
06.10.26	Farnham Town - Truro City	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	Farnham Town - Weston-super-Mare	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Folkestone Invicta - Farnham Town	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnham Town	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Farnham Town - Torquay United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 TWWTW
- Salisbury FC
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Salisbury - Dulwich Hamlet	5:0 ✺
English National League South
26.09.26	Salisbury - Folkestone Invicta	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Truro City - Salisbury	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Ebbsfleet United - Salisbury	1:1 ✺
08.09.26	Salisbury - Slough Town	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWTTW

Farnham Town - Salisbury