Match Info

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga - Round 28

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: 26 May Stadium (Tsqaltubo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kikacheishvili G. (Geo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	14:30	Sport TV


	Samgurali Tskhaltubo		Gagra

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.25	3.50
	1.92	3.25	3.45	Watch
	1.88	3.52	3.93
	1.99	3.38	3.46	Watch
	1.83	3.45	3.85
	1.92	3.55	3.76	Watch
	1.94	3.35	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.97)	3.39 ↓ (3.63)	3.64 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samgurali Tskhaltubo
47.9%

Draw
26.9%

Gagra
25.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.4%

25.1%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

23.7%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samgurali Tskhaltubo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Gagra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samgurali Tskhaltubo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gagra than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Siukaev A. (G) 13. Gegetchkori L. 25. Shatirishvili M. 4. Patarkatsishvili O. (C) 27. Shergelashvili L. 10. Gilmore L. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 20. Vinicius Vianna 8. Bidzinashvili I. 15. Gean Rodrigues 19. Siradze I.	1. Vorobey O. (G) 40. Claudinei 14. Tchavtchanidze Z. (C) 2. Augusto 11. Zoidze S. 33. Gurchiani L. 21. Peikrishvili A. 25. Wanderson 7. Borges P. 30. Goshteliani G. 9. Mujiri D.
Substitutes
28. Claudio Cebolinha 22. Gogia G. 14. Goletiani T. 26. Iashvili Z. 33. Isac Martins 12. Kasradze A. (G) 11. Krasovski D. 39. Ryan 17. Tsetskhladze N.	29. Adeyeye R. 23. Andreychuk A. 4. Arsic V. 35. Dmitrievich A. (G) 19. Khachidze G. 5. Nazarov Y. 22. Sadghobelashvili G. 8. Skrypnyk I. 17. Vinicius Cesar
Coaches
Oniani G.	Ljubenovic Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Bidzinashvili I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Goshteliani G. ↓, Skrypnyk I. ↑,
46', Mujiri D. ↓, Andreychuk A. ↑,
46', 2 - 0, Gaprindashvili T. ⚽, Bidzinashvili I. (A),
58', Borges P. ↓, Adeyeye R. ↑,
58', Gurchiani L. ↓, Khachidze G. ↑,
71', Gaprindashvili T. ↓, Tsetskhladze N. ↑,
71', Bidzinashvili I. ↓, Krasovski D. ↑,
71', Siradze I. ↓, Claudio Cebolinha ↑,
74', Gilmore L. ↓, Iashvili Z. ↑,
75', Zoidze S. 🟨,
78', Peikrishvili A. ↓, Vinicius Cesar ↑,
87', Gean Rodrigues ↓, Gogia G. ↑,
88', 3 - 0, Claudio Cebolinha ⚽, Shergelashvili L. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Samgurali won 2.

Samgurali has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Gagra have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Samgurali is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Samgurali has recorded 10 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 30:17 (averaging 1.5:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Samgurali against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 17:10 goals (averaging 1.7:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Samgurali	30	11	5	14	43:55	-12	38
8	Gagra	30	6	12	12	26:43	-17	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samgurali Tskhaltubo
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
19.09.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Dinamo Tbilisi	2:3 ✺
14.09.26	Torpedo Kutaisi - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	3:2 ✺
09.09.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Dila Gori	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Iberia 1999 - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Rustavi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLT
- Gagra FC
Georgian Erovnuli Liga
19.09.26	Gagra - Meshakhte Tkibuli	1:1 ✺
14.09.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Gagra	4:0 ✺
10.09.26	Gagra - Torpedo Kutaisi	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Dila Gori - Gagra	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Gagra - Iberia 1999	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Georgian Erovnuli Liga
24.06.26	Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	0:0
02.05.26	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra	2:0
02.03.26	Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	0:1
02.11.25	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra	1:1
24.08.25	Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	2:0
07.05.25	Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra	0:2
16.03.25	Gagra - Samgurali Tskhaltubo	0:2

Samgurali Tskhaltubo - Gagra