Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Nordeste - Round 5

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Sampaio Corrêa		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.5
	2.8	2.9	2.55
	2.37	2.85	3.05
	2.42	2.92	3.21
	2.4	2.82	3.16
	2.8	2.8	2.5
	2.86	3.06	2.55	Watch
	2.37	2.85	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.38)	2.9 ↓ (2.95)	2.82 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
35.5%

Draw
31.8%

Náutico Capibaribe
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

30.9%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

30.5%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alan (G) 9. Alan James 10. Alan Stence 8. Balao 5. Cavi 3. Eduardo 4. Fabio Aguiar 2. Jo 11. Pimentinha 6. Thiago Rosa 19. Thiaguinho	19. Muriel Becker (G) 18. Auremir (C) 33. Carlinhos 16. Felipe Santana 7. Helio Borges 23. Igor Fernandes 8. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 34. Otusanya O. 20. Patrick Allan 11. Vinicius
Substitutes
7. Adriano 15. Bacurau 17. Elivelton 22. Gelton Francisco 13. Guilherme 23. Henrique 16. Hudson 21. Isaias 20. Jair 14. Ray 32. Rhuan (G) 18. Rodolfo	2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 5. Igor Pereira 48. Leandro Kaua 12. Leo Coltro 37. Vini 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Alan James ⚽,
16', Patrick Allan 🟨,
33', Cavi 🟨,
45+3', Cavi 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Otusanya O. ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
46', Pimentinha ↓, Hudson ↑,
55', Alan James ↓, Gelton Francisco ↑,
55', Balao 🟨,
56', Thiaguinho ↓, Elivelton ↑,
62', Jo ↓, Ray ↑,
63', Marco Antonio ↓, Leandro Kaua ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Leandro Kaua ⚽,
69', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
73', Auremir ↓, Wenderson ↑,
77', Felipe Santana 🟨,
79', Alan Stence ↓, Bacurau ↑,
83', Marcos Ytalo ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
83', Igor Fernandes ↓, Vini ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sampaio Corrêa won 3.

Sampaio Corrêa is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Náutico is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Náutico could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Náutico have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Sampaio Corrêa won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 24:30 (average 1.2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Sampaio Corrêa won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:12 (average 1.5:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Sampaio Corrêa - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.36%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.02.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Juazeirense	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.02.25	Tuna Luso Brasileira - Sampaio Corrêa	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
13.02.25	CS Alagoano - Sampaio Corrêa	4:0 ✺
04.02.25	Sampaio Corrêa - América RN	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
01.02.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Moto Club de São Luís	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLTT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
03.03.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.02.25	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
22.02.25	Decisão - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.02.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
15.02.25	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
27.07.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
18.02.23	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Sampaio Corrêa	1:3
10.06.22	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.02.22	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
15.11.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Sampaio Corrêa	2:1
11.08.21	Sampaio Corrêa - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0

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