Match Info

Maranhense - Round 7

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)


	Sampaio Corrêa		ITZ Sport

	1	X	2
	1.17	5.3	14.5
	1.23	4.07	24.39
	1.23	4.33	21.51
	1.2	4.8	19
	1.2	5.6	17.3
	1.16	5.33	18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.34)	4.91 ↑ (4.45)	19.12 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa
76.5%

Draw
18.7%

ITZ Sport
4.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

20.3%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.4%

19.2%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sampaio Corrêa's performance.

ITZ Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and ITZ Sport might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampaio Corrêa than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sampaio Corrêa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ITZ Sport than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ITZ Sport could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sampaio Corrêa - ITZ Sport Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Sampaio Corrêa (2.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sampaio Corrêa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Bal ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Emerson Carioca ⚽,
19', 3 - 0, Emerson Carioca ⚽,
28', 4 - 0, Emerson Carioca (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
68', 5 - 0, Matheus Moresche ⚽,
76', 6 - 0, Pedro Dias ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 and 8 in the zone Relegation ~ Maranhense 2).

ITZ Sport is Relegated to Maranhense 2

Sampaio Corrêa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

ITZ Sport has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sampaio Corrêa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, ITZ Sport has had a series of home games.

In this match, Sampaio Corrêa is the undisputed favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
28.01.26	Tuntum - Sampaio Corrêa	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa - Luminense	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Moto Club de São Luís - Sampaio Corrêa	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa - Maranhão	4:2 ✺
14.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa - IAPE	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TTTWT
- ITZ Sport
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
28.01.26	ITZ Sport - Luminense	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	ITZ Sport - Tuntum	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Maranhão - ITZ Sport	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	ITZ Sport - Imperatriz de Desportos	0:1 ✺
14.01.26	ITZ Sport - Moto Club de São Luís	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLT

Sampaio Corrêa - ITZ Sport: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide