Match Info

Super Lig - Round 14

Date: 1 December 2025, Monday

Location: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu (Samsun)

Referee: Saglam K. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2


	Samsunspor		Alanyaspor

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.44	4.12
	1.87	3.62	4.51
	1.81	3.58	4.41	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.2
	1.89	3.62	4.42	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.81)	3.49 ↓ (3.58)	4.36 ↓ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samsunspor
51.3%

Draw
27%

Alanyaspor
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

26.4%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

25.9%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Alanyaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alanyaspor than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Samsunspor - Alanyaspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - Samsunspor (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Samsunspor will win (24 of 27 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.04% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Samsunspor will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kocuk O. (G) 18. Yavru Z. (C) 24. Borevkovic T. 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 29. Makoumbou A. 11. Kilinc E. 21. Holse C. 6. Aydin E. 7. Musaba A. 19. Ndiaye C.	1. Taskiran E. (G) 3. Lima N. 5. Aliti F. (C) 50. Akdag U. 94. Hadergjonaj F. 20. Aksoy F. 42. Makouta G. 11. Ruan 12. Elia M. 14. Hagi I. 16. Hwang Ui-Jo
Substitutes
8. Aydogdu S. 16. Bulbul T. 55. Cift Y. E. 28. Gonul S. 9. Marius 2. Mendes J. 12. Posiadala A. (G) 33. Ustun E. (G) 22. Yaldir P.	23. Bayram M. (G) 79. Doganay S. 7. Karaca E. 27. Kaya I. 18. Mogultay B. 9. Mounie S. 22. Ogundu U. 48. Paulo Victor (G) 10. Yalcin G. 2. Yavuz B.
Coaches
Reis T.	Pereira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Musaba A. ⚽, Yavru Z. (A),
38', Kilinc E. 🟨,
44', Aydin E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Elia M. ↓, Ogundu U. ↑,
48', Akdag U. 🟨,
62', Aydin E. ↓, Aydogdu S. ↑,
62', Ndiaye C. ↓, Marius ↑,
62', Yavru Z. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
64', Aksoy F. ↓, Kaya I. ↑,
69', Tomasson L. 🟨,
78', Hwang Ui-Jo ↓, Mounie S. ↑,
79', Hagi I. ↓, Karaca E. ↑,
85', Musaba A. ↓, Cift Y. E. ↑,
87', Lima N. ↓, Yalcin G. ↑,
89', Holse C. ↓, Gonul S. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Yalcin G. ⚽, Akdag U. (A),
90+5', Mendes J. 🟥,
90+7', Makouta G. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Samsunspor won 1.

Samsunspor is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alanyaspor has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alanyaspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Samsunspor is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Samsunspor: Ceesay E. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly T. (Knee Injury) Ntcham O. (Hamstring Injury) Satka L. (Injury) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Yuksel C. (Suspended)

There will not play in Alanyaspor: Bruno Viana (Injury) Bulut B. (Knee Injury) Celik I. (Suspended) Keskin E. (Suspended) Ozdemir Y. (Suspended) Ozyurt B. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Alanyaspor: Maestro (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Samsunspor won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:13. (average 2.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Samsunspor won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 2.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samsunspor
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Breiðablik - Samsunspor	2:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.11.25	Beşiktaş - Samsunspor	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Samsunspor - Eyüpspor	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Samsunspor - Hamrun Spartans	3:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
02.11.25	Konyaspor - Samsunspor	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TTWWW
- Alanyaspor
Turkish Super League
23.11.25	Alanyaspor - Kasımpaşa	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Trabzonspor - Alanyaspor	1:1 ✺
03.11.25	Alanyaspor - Gaziantep	0:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
29.10.25	Bursa Yıldırımspor - Alanyaspor	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
25.10.25	Kocaelispor - Alanyaspor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
21.04.25	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	1:0
24.11.24	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1
18.05.24	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1
Turkish Cup
17.01.24	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	1:3 ET
Turkish Super League
25.12.23	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	3:1
Turkish First League
12.03.16	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	5:1
17.10.15	Alanyaspor - Samsunspor	3:2

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