Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 15

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Ciudadela (Tucuman)


	San Martín de Tucumán		Atlanta Buenos Aires

	1	X	2
	1.86	2.85	5	Watch
	1.92	2.88	4.55	Watch
	1.98	2.94	5.02
	1.98	2.76	5.08	Watch
	1.95	2.75	4.6
	1.87	2.82	4.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.89)	2.83 ↓ (2.95)	4.84 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Martín de Tucumán
48.1%

Draw
32.7%

Atlanta Buenos Aires
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

31.6%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

32.1%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Martín de Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Atlanta Buenos Aires has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlanta Buenos Aires than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

San Martín de Tucumán - Atlanta Buenos Aires Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. San Martin T will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Atlanta will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sand D. (G) 4. Juarez J. 2. Penalba T. 6. Parnisari E. 3. Diarte L. 8. Brinone S. 5. Rodriguez G. 10. Castro N. 11. Cisnero A. 7. Arfaras L. 9. Diellos D.	1. Rago F. (G) 4. Garcia M. 2. Moreira R. 6. Rojas T. 3. Arguello D. 8. Castro Ponce T. 5. Previtali N. 10. Puch J. 7. Alvarez F. 9. Quintana A. 11. Fedele L.
Substitutes
16. Borasi B. 18. Ferreyra L. 14. Gallardo N. 15. Lopez E. 12. Manganelli N. (G) 20. Pons F. 19. Rodriguez G. 17. Salazar V.	20. Castro F. 13. Galeano L. 17. Ibarra M. 12. Lopez Kaleniuk L. (G) 16. Mendoza G. 14. Ostachuk P. 15. Rivero B. 19. Rodriguez I. 18. Sosa R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Cisnero A. ↓, Ferreyra L. ↑,
22', Quintana A. 🟨,
45', Brinone S. 🟨,
45+2', Diellos D. 🟨,
45+2', Puch J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', 0 - 1, Puch J. ⚽, Fedele L. (A),
61', Previtali N. 🟨,
62', Alvarez F. ↓, Rivero B. ↑,
69', Puch J. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
69', Quintana A. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
69', Arfaras L. ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
70', Ferreyra L. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
70', Penalba T. ↓, Pons F. ↑,
74', Juarez J. 🟨,
75', 🟨,
77', Fedele L. ↓, Ibarra M. ↑,
80', Juarez J. ↓, Salazar V. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90', Diellos D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Martin T won 2.

Recent performances by San Martin T have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlanta is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atlanta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, San Martin T is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, San Martin T won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, San Martin T won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 2.3:0).

Last Results with these Odds

San Martín de Tucumán - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.37%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.05.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - San Martín de Tucumán	1:0 ✺
12.05.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Gimnasia Jujuy	2:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
08.05.26	Banfield - San Martín de Tucumán	2:1 penalties ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.05.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Atlético de Rafaela	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Agropecuario Argentino - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL
- Atlanta Buenos Aires
Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.05.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Atlético de Rafaela	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Tristán Suárez	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Güemes - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.09.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Atlanta Buenos Aires	4:0
11.05.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Martín de Tucumán	3:1
22.07.22	San Martín de Tucumán - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:0
17.08.21	San Martín de Tucumán - Atlanta Buenos Aires	3:0
04.04.21	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Martín de Tucumán	2:1
17.01.21	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Martín de Tucumán	3:2 penalties

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