Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 9

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas (Buenos Aires)


	San Miguel		Deportivo Morón

	1	X	2
	3	2.7	2.7	Watch
	3	2.62	2.68	Watch
	3.18	2.6	2.86
	3.31	2.55	2.71	Watch
	2.9	2.5	2.8
	2.96	2.71	2.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.85)	2.61 ↓ (2.75)	2.75 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Miguel
30.5%

Draw
35.7%

Deportivo Morón
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

33.9%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

34.9%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Deportivo Morón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Morón than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

San Miguel - Deportivo Morón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lungarzo J. (G) 4. Adin D. 2. Renteria D. 6. Ceceri K. 3. Cruz A. 8. Desabato L. 5. Ramirez I. 10. Ferrero J. 7. Oses M. 9. Nasta B. 11. Juarez D.	1. Salva J. (G) 4. Contreras E. 2. Salvareschi B. 6. Vazquez F. 3. Livera J. 8. Ramirez T. 5. Burruchaga M. 10. Olivares J. 11. Kubiszyn S. 7. Fagundez F. 9. Bulacio D.
Substitutes
13. Aguirre F. 18. Almeida F. 17. Benitez M. 15. Cardozo F. 16. Coronel F. 19. Diaz T. 12. Escobar M. (G) 20. Jerez T. 14. Serra M.	19. Baez F. 16. Benitez M. 20. Berterame G. 17. Bittolo M. 12. Diaz F. (G) 14. Flores F. 18. Gonzalez G. 15. Gonzalez M. 13. Vaquero I. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Ceceri K. ⚽, Juarez D. (A),
25', Renteria D. 🟨,
40', Ramirez T. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Burruchaga M. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
46', Renteria D. ↓, Aguirre F. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Bulacio D. ⚽, Fagundez F. (A),
49', Desabato L. 🟨,
53', 2 - 1, Nasta B. ⚽, Ferrero J. (A),
61', Olivares J. ↓, Berterame G. ↑,
61', Fagundez F. ↓, Baez F. ↑,
67', Juarez D. ↓, Almeida F. ↑,
69', Contreras E. 🟨,
72', Ferrero J. ↓, Serra M. ↑,
77', Oses M. ↓, Coronel F. ↑,
77', Desabato L. ↓, Diaz T. ↑,
80', Adin D. 🟨,
80', Kubiszyn S. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
80', Contreras E. ↓, Benitez M. ↑,
81', Serra M. 🟨,
90+2', Ceceri K. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Super final: )).

Recent performances by San Miguel have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportivo Morón is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, San Miguel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, San Miguel won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

San Miguel - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.74%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.04.26	Colón - San Miguel	3:0 ✺
28.03.26	Colegiales - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	San Miguel - Racing de Córdoba	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	San Miguel - San Telmo	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	San Miguel - Chaco For Ever	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTLTW
- Deportivo Morón
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.04.26	Deportivo Morón - San Telmo	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Club Almagro - Deportivo Morón	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Acassuso - Deportivo Morón	0:3 ✺
14.03.26	Deportivo Morón - Chaco For Ever	3:2 ✺
01.03.26	Deportivo Morón - Central Norte	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.10.24	San Miguel - Deportivo Morón	0:1
02.06.24	Deportivo Morón - San Miguel	0:1

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