Match Info

Pernambucano - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)


	Santa Cruz Recife		Decisão

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.25	7.3
	1.38	4.33	7.66
	1.36	4.47	7.41
	1.36	3.9	7.5
	1.35	4.2	8.15
	1.41	4.33	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.46)	4.25 ↑ (4.07)	7.67 ↑ (6.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
66.5%

Draw
21.5%

Decisão
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

22.6%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

21.2%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Decisão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Decisão than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Santa Cruz Recife - Decisão Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Rokenedy (G) 26. Alex Ruan 17. Gabriel Galhardo 4. Ianson 14. Israel 13. Matheus Vinicius 20. Patrick Allan 9. Quirino 18. Vitinho 8. Wagner Balotelli (C) 10. Willian Junior	12. Joao Gabriel (G) 2. Almeida da Silva K. D. 19. Bambam 5. Caio Bahia 8. Eder Monteiro 7. Fernando Portel 6. Mateus Rodrigues 11. Mosquito 18. Pablinho 4. Victor Ramon 10. Xandinho
Substitutes
5. Andrey 21. Fabiel L. 1. Felipe Alves (G) 25. Gabriel Souza (G) 22. Harley 16. Matheus Castilho 2. Pedro Costa 15. Pedro Favela 19. Renato 6. Rodrigues 11. Vini Hora	16. Batista R. 21. Cesar Leite M. 15. Henrique Araujo 20. Jonas 9. Luis Lipek 13. Marolla 1. Mateus Raffler (G) 17. Richarles

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Xandinho 🟨,
40', Gabriel Galhardo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Xandinho ↓, Jonas ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Ianson ⚽,
59', Eder Monteiro ↓, Cesar Leite M. ↑,
59', Mosquito ↓, Richarles ↑,
60', Gabriel Galhardo ↓, Pedro Favela ↑,
60', Vitinho ↓, Pedro Costa ↑,
69', Pablinho ↓, Luis Lipek ↑,
79', Patrick Allan ↓, Renato ↑,
80', Fernando Portel ↓, Batista R. ↑,
87', Wagner Balotelli ↓, Andrey ↑,
88', Willian Junior ↓, Matheus Castilho ↑,
89', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Santa Cruz is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Santa Cruz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Cruz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Santa Cruz Recife - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 63.15%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
05.02.26	Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Jaguar	6:0 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
21.01.26	Retrô Brasil - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLL
- Decisão FC
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
05.02.26	Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Retrô Brasil - Decisão	0:1 ✺
28.01.26	Decisão - Vitória das Tabocas	0:4 ✺
25.01.26	Maguary - Decisão	3:4 ✺
21.01.26	Sport Recife - Decisão	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
05.02.26	Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2
11.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Decisão	3:0
11.01.25	Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1
15.03.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Decisão	2:1

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