Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 28

Date: 17 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana (Santiago de Chile)


	Santiago Morning		Cobreloa

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.2	2.32
	2.71	3.37	2.5
	1.23	6.09	10.34	Watch
	2.95	3.18	2.34	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (3.23)	3.82 ↑ (3.23)	3.93 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santiago Morning
42.7%

Draw
29.1%

Cobreloa
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santiago Morning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santiago Morning's performance.

Cobreloa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cobreloa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santiago Morning that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (+16.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cobreloa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30%	20%

Santiago Morning - Cobreloa Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Santiago Morning will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Cobreloa will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santiago Morning: 19% – 81%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Santiago Morning (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santiago Morning will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Santiago Morning (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Canete L. (G) 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 2. Santelices G. 14. Vasquez K. 20. Ormeno E. 25. Estay D. 4. Iturra M. 6. Asprea T. 15. Cortes F. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. 18. Taiva B.	1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 6. Palma N. 17. Tapia D. 33. Heredia A. 24. Garcia L. 21. Muga C. 30. Ledezma I. 32. Zuniga S. 15. Valdes A. 7. Gotti G. (C) 42. Jara A.
Substitutes
1. Arana A. (G) 7. Arancibia M. 22. Arias D. 16. Ceron D. 23. Delgado M. 5. Gatica M. 8. Salazar S.	20. Barrera L. 22. Delgado A. 44. Huanca C. 18. Melendez J. 23. Navarrete G. 16. Romero P. 31. Salazar A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Taiva B. ⚽,
7', 2 - 0, Vasquez K. ⚽,
17', Tapia D. 🟨,
40', Tapia D. 🟨,
45+2', Jara A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Valdes A. ↓, Delgado A. ↑,
46', Zuniga S. ↓, Romero P. ↑,
52', Vasquez K. 🟨,
58', Manriquez Hernandez F. ↓, Castro P. ↑,
63', Taiva B. ↓, Arias D. ↑,
63', Asprea T. ↓, Campillay K. ↑,
64', Estay D. 🟨,
66', Ledezma I. ↓, Huanca C. ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Arias D. ⚽,
73', Vasquez K. ↓, Ceron D. ↑,
74', Cortes F. ↓, Arancibia M. ↑,
77', Jara A. ↓, Navarrete G. ↑,
77', Muga C. ↓, Melendez J. ↑,
85', Navarrete G. 🟨,
90+1', Palma N. 🟨,
90+1', Heredia A. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santiago Morning won 1.

In recent matches, Santiago Morning has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cobreloa is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cobreloa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Santiago Morning won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:27. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Santiago Morning won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
11.10.25	Deportes Magallanes - Santiago Morning	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Santiago Morning - Santiago Wanderers	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Santiago Morning - Universidad de Concepción	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Morning	4:0 ✺
29.08.25	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Morning	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTTLL
- Cobreloa
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
12.10.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Temuco	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Cobreloa	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Recoleta	4:0 ✺
07.09.25	Deportes Concepción - Cobreloa	4:0 ✺
31.08.25	Cobreloa - San Luis de Quillota	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
06.07.25	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	0:1
13.09.23	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	2:1
17.04.23	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	0:2
01.11.22	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	2:2
Chilean Cup
20.08.22	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	1:0
16.08.22	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	0:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
28.05.22	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	0:1

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