Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 23

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Deportes Concepción		Santiago Morning

	1	X	2
	1.77	3.3	3.9
	2.1	3.35	3.1
	2.04	3.28	3.64
	1.96	3.37	3.74	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4
	2.12	3.51	3.2	Watch
	2.15	3.05	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.26)	3.28 ↑ (3.1)	3.52 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
45.9%

Draw
28%

Santiago Morning
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

29.8%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

28.6%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Santiago Morning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Deportes Concepción - Santiago Morning Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Deportes Concepción will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Deportes Concepción will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Gomez G. (G) 3. Carrasco D. 5. Silva S. (C) 24. Espinola J. 16. Sandoval M. 19. Ovalle J. 23. Ojeda U. 26. Morales C. 27. Sepulveda N. 4. Caceres A. 32. Larrivey J.	12. Canete L. (G) 2. Santelices G. 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 14. Vasquez K. 25. Estay D. 8. Salazar S. 17. Castro P. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. (C) 10. Campillay K. 22. Arias D. 27. Coronado M.
Substitutes
25. Araya N. (G) 6. Astete N. 9. Escobar C. 30. Fuentes N. 31. Kimura N. 11. Valdivia B. 20. Zambrano Diego	28. Alvarez D. 7. Arancibia M. 6. Asprea T. 16. Ceron D. 15. Cortes F. 11. Escobar G. 26. Villegas M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', Sandoval M. ↓, Astete N. ↑,
19', Carrasco D. 🟨,
21', Arias D. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Ojeda U. ⚽,
33', Estay D. ↓, Cortes F. ↑,
34', 1 - 1, Campillay K. ⚽,
37', Astete N. 🟥,
37', Castro P. 🟥,
38', Larrivey J. 🟨,
38', Guajardo Barrera B. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 1, Larrivey J. ⚽,
45+3', Campillay K. 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Coronado M. ↓, Asprea T. ↑,
55', Cortes F. 🟨,
62', Arias D. ↓, Escobar G. ↑,
66', Salazar S. 🟨,
72', Sepulveda N. 🟨,
74', 3 - 1, Ovalle J. ⚽,
75', Salazar S. ↓, Arancibia M. ↑,
75', Vasquez K. ↓, Ceron D. ↑,
78', Larrivey J. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
78', Ojeda U. ↓, Fuentes N. ↑,
79', Morales C. ↓, Valdivia B. ↑,
80', Sepulveda N. 🟨,
85', Ovalle J. ↓, Kimura N. ↑,
90', 4 - 1, Carrasco D. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 3.

Recent performances by Deportes Concepción have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santiago Morning is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Deportes Concepción is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Concepción won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
24.08.25	Deportes Concepción - Universidad de Concepción	1:4 ✺
16.08.25	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
10.08.25	Deportes Concepción - Curicó Unido	0:0 ✺
04.08.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Santa Cruz	1:0 ✺
25.07.25	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Concepción	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTWW
- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
22.08.25	San Marcos de Arica - Santiago Morning	2:1 ✺
15.08.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Santa Cruz	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Rangers de Talca - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
01.08.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Recoleta	0:2 ✺
26.07.25	Curicó Unido - Santiago Morning	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
27.04.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Concepción	0:3
24.01.16	Santiago Morning - Deportes Concepción	2:2
09.08.15	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Morning	2:1
12.04.15	Santiago Morning - Deportes Concepción	3:0
11.01.15	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Morning	2:1
16.11.14	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Morning	1:0
10.08.14	Santiago Morning - Deportes Concepción	4:2

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