Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 24

Date: 7 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Regional de Antofagasta (Antofagasta)


	Deportes Antofagasta		Santiago Morning

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.1
	2.05	3.25	3.35
	2.09	3.51	3.41
	2.16	3.16	3.38	Watch
	2.05	3.49	3.38	Watch
	2.08	3.16	3.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.55)	3.3 ↑ (3.2)	3.36 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Antofagasta
44.4%

Draw
28%

Santiago Morning
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.7%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

28.2%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Antofagasta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Antofagasta's performance.

Santiago Morning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santiago Morning might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Antofagasta than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Antofagasta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santiago Morning could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Morning Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Antofagasta (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Antofagasta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Hurtado Perez F. (G) 3. Maluenda M. 16. Viveros B. 2. Berardo N. 33. Abuhadba Z. 26. Hinojosa S. 15. Baez F. 30. Jara I. 8. Paredes R. 32. Figueroa T. 7. Bravo C.	12. Canete L. (G) 14. Vasquez K. 2. Santelices G. 16. Ceron D. 23. Delgado M. 20. Ormeno E. 4. Iturra M. 6. Asprea T. 22. Arias D. 9. Cid W. 10. Campillay K.
Substitutes
1. Cisternas J. (G) 20. Cuadra A. 23. Fredes M. 9. Hurtado B. 21. Manzano F. 17. Nieto B. 10. Souper A.	28. Alvarez D. 1. Arana A. (G) 7. Arancibia M. 27. Coronado M. 25. Estay D. 19. Monje J. 8. Salazar S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Ceron D. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Bravo C. ⚽,
20', Ormeno E. 🟨,
25', Ceron D. 🟨,
39', Santelices G. 🟨,
44', Paredes R. 🟨,
45+4', Paredes R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Fredes M. ↓, Bravo C. ↑,
46', Maluenda M. ↓, Nieto B. ↑,
46', 2 - 0, Nieto B. ⚽,
48', 3 - 0, Jara I. ⚽,
61', Arias D. ↓, Coronado M. ↑,
61', Cid W. ↓, Arancibia M. ↑,
61', Asprea T. ↓, Monje J. ↑,
69', Delgado M. 🟨,
71', Jara I. 🟨,
72', Jara I. ↓, Cuadra A. ↑,
73', 4 - 0, Figueroa T. ⚽,
74', Cuadra A. 🟨,
75', Figueroa T. 🟨,
75', Figueroa T. 🟨,
79', Salazar S. 🟨,
85', Hinojosa S. ↓, Souper A. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Antofagasta is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santiago Morning is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Santiago Morning may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Antofagasta could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Antofagasta won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Antofagasta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Santiago Morning - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.31%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Antofagasta
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.08.25	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Antofagasta	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Antofagasta	0:2 ✺
17.08.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Recoleta	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Cobreloa	3:0 ✺
03.08.25	Deportes Temuco - Deportes Antofagasta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWTWT
- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
29.08.25	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Morning	4:1 ✺
22.08.25	San Marcos de Arica - Santiago Morning	2:1 ✺
15.08.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Santa Cruz	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Rangers de Talca - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
01.08.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Recoleta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
04.05.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Antofagasta	1:1
25.08.24	Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Morning	0:0
13.04.24	Santiago Morning - Deportes Antofagasta	0:1
23.07.23	Santiago Morning - Deportes Antofagasta	1:2
05.03.23	Deportes Antofagasta - Santiago Morning	1:0

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